Protecting American Interests in a Convergent Global Threat Environment

Defense Posture and Global ThreatsHouse Armed Services · 2025-02-12 · 119th Congress
The House Armed Services Committee held its first hearing of the 119th Congress to examine what Chairman Mike Rogers called the most challenging threat environment since World War II, driven by deepening cooperation among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Begins at 0:24:37
Transcript
Highlights

Title

Global threats from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea's convergence

Purpose

The House Armed Services Committee held its first hearing of the 119th Congress to examine what Chairman Mike Rogers called the most challenging threat environment since World War II, driven by deepening cooperation among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Witnesses General Jack Keane (Institute for the Study of War) and Dr. Mara Karlin (Johns Hopkins SAIS) testified on defense spending levels, acquisition reform, the defense industrial base, and deterrence strategy toward China, Russia, and Iran. Members also debated DOGE's role at the Pentagon, foreign aid/USAID cuts, and Ukraine and Taiwan support. Begins at0:24:37

Who spoke

Chairman Mike Rogers (R-AL)0:24:37: Opened by describing a converging axis of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea supporting Putin's war0:25:38, and called for raising defense spending to at least 4% of GDP0:28:10.

Ranking Member Adam Smith (D-WA)0:29:11: Agreed adversaries share a goal of reducing US influence0:29:41, criticized slow Pentagon acquisition comparing it to "1950s Ford" versus "2022 Apple"0:30:42, and warned against denigrating allies like NATO and South Korea0:32:43, later criticizing talk of taking Greenland, Panama, and Gaza as undermining US sovereignty messaging0:33:43.

General Jack Keane, ISW Chairman0:35:14: Said China is outpacing the US militarily except in submarines0:37:15, defense spending as a share of the federal budget is at 13.3%0:39:16, and recommended moving toward 5% of GDP0:39:46; later detailed acquisition reform needs including ending "requirements creep"0:48:52 and continuing resolutions0:50:53, and said Iran is at its weakest point in 44 years, urging a "date certain" ultimatum on its nuclear program1:00:58.

Dr. Mara Karlin, Johns Hopkins SAIS0:40:16: Described an "age of comprehensive conflict" where the continuum of war has collapsed0:41:17, said the defense budget is at a historic high in dollars but historic low as % of GDP0:43:49, and recommended prioritizing China while not ignoring other threats0:43:18; later cited AUKUS's $3 billion Australian investment in the US submarine industrial base as a model1:06:32 and noted the Marine Corps is the only service to pass a clean audit1:31:16.

Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC)0:57:25: Asked how to capitalize on Iran's weakness following the fall of the Assad regime0:58:26.

Rep. Joe Courtney (D-CT)1:02:29: Highlighted AUKUS implementation including submarine sales to Australia and $3 billion invested in the US industrial base1:02:59, and asked about exempting Australia from steel/aluminum tariffs1:04:30.

Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA)1:08:33: Said China spends over $700 billion annually on defense and can build 232 ships for every one the US builds1:09:03, pressing on closing the deterrence gap1:10:03.

Rep. Donald Norcross (D-NJ)1:14:35: Asked how to drive a wedge in the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea axis1:14:35.

Rep. Mark Green / Dr. Dean (R-TN)1:18:37: Asked about transitioning Ukraine from aid recipient to defense consumer using frozen Russian assets and mineral resources1:19:07.

Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA)1:24:11: Pressed Keane on parochial defense programs, citing the Littoral Combat Ship and A-101:24:41, and drew an analogy that a $20,000 drone could destroy a $5 million tank1:25:41.

Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE)1:29:14: Cited 2.9% GDP defense spending as inadequate1:29:14 and asked about a $10 billion Taiwan arms backlog1:31:46.

Rep. Salud Carbajal (D-CA)1:34:18: Asked about the importance of soft power and USAID, citing a $40 billion FY2023 budget affecting 130 countries1:34:48.

Rep. Carlos Jimenez (R-FL)1:39:50: Argued for auditing rather than eliminating USAID1:39:50 and asked about regime change in Iran1:40:20.

Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-PA)1:45:23: Questioned whether DOGE's ~20-40 staffers are qualified to review Pentagon spending1:46:24 and raised concerns about Secretary Hegseth calling NATO membership for Ukraine "unrealistic"1:48:24.

Rep. James Moylan (Guam)1:50:27: Asked about federal support for Guam's infrastructure given its strategic importance and exposure to Chinese coercion1:50:57.

Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY)1:54:29: Cited a Trump administration DASD nominee's comments calling Middle East interests "minimal to non-existent" and Iran's missile attacks "fairly moderate"1:55:30, and noted Hegseth spent $137,000 painting his home amid barracks disrepair1:58:31.

Rep. Wes Hurd / Maguire (R-VA)1:59:31: Noted the US spends 2.7% of GDP on defense versus pre-WWII levels1:59:31 and asked what happens if Iran obtains a nuclear weapon2:03:02.

Rep. Jimmy Panetta / Sablan-Cisneros (D-CA)2:04:32: Cited former SecDef Mattis's line about funding the State Department to avoid buying more ammunition2:05:02 and raised NATO/Five Eyes withdrawal risks2:09:04.

Rep. Mark Harris (R-NC)2:10:35: Asked which legacy weapons systems should be cut2:10:35.

Rep. Don Davis (D-NC)2:15:38: Asked about Ukraine's negotiating position needs including F-16s and pilot training2:16:08, and about Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan's pace of buildup2:18:39.

Rep. Rudy Yakym / Mesmer (R-IN)2:21:11: Asked about China's hypersonic missile lead and the MOCT testbed program2:21:41, and about space-based interceptors2:24:12.

Rep. Jason Crow (D-CO)2:26:14: Argued reform must be tied to funding increases, not separate2:27:15, and asked about capturing lessons learned from the Ukraine war2:28:15.

Rep. Jeff Crank (R-CO)2:32:17: Asked how to avoid being "Goliath" against low-cost drone and cyber threats2:32:48, and about breaking the Iranian regime2:36:20.

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard-style / Takuda (HI)2:37:20: Pressed for yes/no on whether the USAID freeze emboldened China and Russia2:38:51, and asked about China's inroads in the Pacific Islands, including the Cook Islands' pending agreement with China2:42:23.

Rep. Juan Ciscomani / Hamedi (AZ)2:43:24: Asked whether US hypersonic and AI capabilities match adversaries'2:44:24.

Rep. Derek Tran (D-CA)2:48:27: Asked about military recruiting challenges and the impact of anti-DEI actions on recruitment2:51:59.

Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI), presiding2:53:29: Welcomed Democrats to a "Doge caucus," defended the A-10 platform2:54:00, and criticized careerism among senior officers2:57:31.

Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-IL)2:58:31: Highlighted the Rock Island Arsenal and organic industrial base modernization2:59:32.

Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-NH)3:03:35: Asked about consolidation in the defense industrial base, noting the drop from 51 to 5 prime contractors3:04:35.

Rep. Pat Fallon (R-TX)3:09:08: Asked about contested logistics and access in the Indo-Pacific3:09:38.

Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-VA)3:14:10: Discussed the "axis of autocrats" and asked about pressuring Russia at relatively low cost3:14:40.

Rep. Jen Kiggans-style / unidentified member3:19:12: Asked about autonomous surface and undersea vessels closing the capability gap with China3:19:42.

Rep. Wesley Bell (D-MO)3:24:47: Asked about the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency's role, citing its location in St. Louis3:25:17.

Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL)3:29:19: Asked about lowering barriers to entry for small defense businesses via DIU-style innovation offices3:29:50.

Rep. Addison Davis-style / vice ranking member Davis3:34:22: Closed with brief thanks to witnesses3:34:22.

Key moments

Keane stated China outguns the US in every military category except submarines, having largely negated the US advantage in the Western Pacific through 20-plus years of investment0:37:15.

Keane said defense spending is now 13.3% of the federal budget, down from a Cold War peak of 6.8%, calling the decline "a policy choice not a fiscal constraint"0:39:16.

Keane disclosed that the Army could buy fewer than 100 drones this year through the program-of-record process versus a need for about 20,000, while Ukraine built 1.4 million drones domestically in one year1:51:23.

Wittman stated China can build 232 ships for every one the US builds and is on track for 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035 with no arms-limitation treaty in sight1:09:33.

Keane detailed a plan to fund Ukraine's defense without US taxpayer dollars by releasing frozen Russian assets in Europe and leveraging $26 trillion in Ukrainian mineral resources as investment collateral1:20:08.

Ryan cited a newly appointed DASD for the Middle East calling US interests there "minimal to non-existent" and Iran's missile attacks "fairly moderate," which Keane said he "fundamentally disagree[d]" with1:56:001:57:00.

Karlin said only North Koreans appear to be dying for Russia's war effort, not Chinese or Iranian nationals, suggesting a wedge could be driven between the adversary coalition1:15:35.

Keane said Iran is in the weakest position in its 44-year history and urged a "date certain" ultimatum for dismantling its nuclear program, backed by the threat of an Israeli strike supported by the US1:00:271:00:58.

Houlahan and Keane debated DOGE's competence, with Keane declining to judge based on staffers' age while Houlahan noted most are reportedly 19-25 years old lacking extensive business experience1:47:241:47:54.

Van Orden and Karlin clashed over USAID and Djibouti policy, with Van Orden calling US foreign aid "paying tribute" while Karlin defended soft power's role in maintaining the Djibouti base2:53:292:59:34.

Metadata

CommitteeHouse Armed Services
Chamber / CongressHouse · 119th Congress
Date2025-02-12
TypeHearing
Witnesses
General Jack Keane — Chairman, Institute for the Study of War
Dr. Mara Karlin — Professor, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Videoyoutube
Transcript390 caption blocks · 31,772 words · 3:37:17 runtime
EventCongress.gov 117891