Flashpoint: A Path Toward Stability in the Western Balkans

Defense Posture and Global ThreatsHouse Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe · 2025-12-02 · 119th Congress
The House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe held this hearing to examine sources of instability in the Western Balkans — including the stalled Serbia-Kosovo dialogue, Bosnia's fragile Dayton-era political structure, and Russian and Chinese influence in the region — and to consider how the Trump administration should engage the region going forward. Begins at 0:14:04
Transcript
Highlights

Title

Western Balkans instability, Serbia-Kosovo tensions, and US policy options

Purpose

The House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe held this hearing to examine sources of instability in the Western Balkans — including the stalled Serbia-Kosovo dialogue, Bosnia's fragile Dayton-era political structure, and Russian and Chinese influence in the region — and to consider how the Trump administration should engage the region going forward. Three outside experts (Edward Joseph of Johns Hopkins SAIS, Max Primorac of the Heritage Foundation, and Luke Coffey of the Hudson Institute) testified and took questions from members on sanctions policy, Bosnia's Office of the High Representative, and reported Chinese and Russian activity in Serbia. Begins at0:14:04

Who spoke

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)0:14:04: Opened by describing the Western Balkans as Europe's most unstable region outside Ukraine0:14:29, detailed Kosovo's stalled government formation and December 28 snap election0:15:23, Bosnia's high representative's expanding "bond powers"0:15:48, and Albania's judicial backlog growing from ~16,000 to ~200,000 cases0:16:31; later ran a lightning round on Serbian sanctions and minority treatment1:24:36 and announced plans to introduce a bill on Serbia's treatment of ethnic Albanians1:27:05.

Ranking Member Bill Keating (D-MA)0:21:43: Defended the Dayton Accords and the Office of the High Representative0:22:12, cited his bipartisan Western Balkans Democracy and Prosperity Act0:22:31, criticized the administration's removal of sanctions on Milorad Dodik0:22:58, and condemned the Kushner-linked Belgrade hotel project0:24:50; later pressed witnesses on the purpose of sanctions and named Rudy Giuliani, Rod Blagojevich, and Laura Loomer in connection with lobbying to lift Dodik's sanctions1:29:15.

Max Primorac, Heritage Foundation0:28:35: Called Bosnia a "failed state" after 30 years and billions in US aid0:28:35, urged dissolving the Office of the High Representative0:29:04, argued the State Department pursues a "centralized Muslim dominant state" that discriminates against Croats0:29:50, and promoted a Trump-style investment-based "grand bargain" using US energy exports0:31:11.

Luke Coffey, Hudson Institute0:33:35: Argued Europe's economic weight (46 of 50 US states export more to Europe than China) makes regional stability a US interest0:34:05, said Serbia "remains firmly in Russia's orbit"0:35:21, criticized the October removal of Dodik's sanctions as "unanchored to any broader US strategy"0:36:19, and defended Dayton as one of the "greatest diplomatic achievements" of the postwar era0:37:28.

Edward Joseph, Johns Hopkins SAIS0:38:51: Said Serbia's "revisionist" alignment with Russia and China is the core obstacle to regional stability0:39:19, recommended nationalizing Serbia's Russian-owned oil company NIS and closing RT/Sputnik outlets in Serbia0:42:33, confirmed Serbia does not recognize Kosovo's right to exist0:47:30, and called NATO membership, not the EU dialogue, the real solution for Kosovo-Serbia normalization0:56:39.

Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH)0:57:20: Invoked JD Vance's Munich speech on European free-speech crackdowns0:58:16, criticized the Senate Armed Services Committee for blocking Trump's nominees in response to a paused Romania troop rotation0:59:39, and defended the administration's Ukraine peace-deal approach1:02:20.

Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV)1:03:08: Summarized Serbia's stalled EU candidacy since 20121:03:08, noted President Vučić's "multi-vector" foreign policy balancing the US, EU, China and Russia1:03:51, and pressed Coffey on whether the US-Serbia strategic dialogue emboldens Belgrade1:04:20.

Rep. Young Kim (R-CA)1:08:21: Asked how figures like Dodik, the Orthodox Church, and Russian-linked paramilitaries obstruct NATO/EU integration1:08:48, and how Chinese investment (over €30 billion in the Western Balkans, concentrated in Serbia) creates debt dependency1:10:49.

Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA)1:13:52: Asked witnesses whether lifting sanctions undermines US leverage1:14:16 and whether the US and NATO can work more comprehensively to bring regional factions together1:15:05.

Rep. Sarah McBride (D-DE)1:19:02: Criticized the administration's broader foreign-policy coherence, citing tariffs on allies alongside sanctions relief for Dodik1:19:33, and asked Coffey and Joseph how the sanctions removal — reportedly following lobbying by Trump allies — undermines US national security interests1:20:27.

Key moments

Chair Self said Kosovo's failure to form a government after its February 2025 election has forced a new snap election on December 280:15:23.

Keating disclosed he and ranking member Meeks sent a letter to Secretary Rubio objecting to the administration's removal of all sanctions on Milorad Dodik and his family/affiliates0:22:58.

Keating and Joseph both criticized Serbian parliament's approval of a Jared Kushner-linked hotel development on former Serbian defense ministry land, with Joseph noting the site sits directly across from Serbia's main government building and faces broad opposition0:24:501:06:52.

Coffey said the sanctions on Dodik, imposed for "obstructing the Dayton Accords" during the first Trump term, lasted through Biden's presidency before being unexpectedly lifted last October with no stated rationale or clear US benefit0:36:19.

Joseph confirmed under direct questioning that Serbia does not recognize Kosovo's right to exist as a sovereign state, nor the 2010 ICJ opinion on its independence0:47:30.

Keating pressed Coffey and Joseph on names tied to lobbying for Dodik's sanctions removal — Rudy Giuliani, Rod Blagojevich, and Laura Loomer — with Coffey confirming Giuliani's and Blagojevich's involvement1:29:151:29:37.

Primorac and Coffey disagreed with Keating and Joseph over Dayton: Primorac called for dissolving the Office of the High Representative and creating a third, Croat-majority entity0:29:04, while Coffey argued unwinding Dayton now would be "too much of a risky business" amid the Ukraine war0:54:12.

Kim cited over €30 billion in Chinese investment across the Western Balkans, concentrated in Serbia, financing highways and 5G networks on opaque, high-interest terms1:10:49; Primorac linked this to the fatal 2024 Novi Sad train station collapse, attributing it to Chinese-built infrastructure with weak safety standards1:11:50.

Davidson linked the Pentagon's pause of a rotational brigade to Romania with Senate Armed Services Committee retaliation against Trump's nominees, arguing both reflect friction over policy toward Europe0:59:39; Coffey noted the Romania and Dodik announcements came the same day1:21:06.

Titus noted Serbia sent military personnel to train in China and hosted President Xi for a state visit despite pursuing EU candidacy, while the administration's Serbia dialogue has focused on business and energy rather than anti-corruption or rule-of-law reform [0:23:51... 1:03:51].

Metadata

CommitteeHouse Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe
Chamber / CongressHouse · 119th Congress
Date2025-12-02
TypeHearing
Witnesses
Mr. Edward Joseph — Lecturer & Senior Fellow, Merrill Center for Strategic Studies, Foreign Policy Institute, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Mr. Max Primorac — Senior Research Fellow, Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom, Heritage Foundation
Mr. Luke Coffey — Senior Fellow, Center on Europe and Eurasia, Hudson Institute
Videoyoutube
Transcript250 caption blocks · 12,530 words · 1:37:43 runtime
EventCongress.gov 118682