Strategic Trajectories: Assessing China’s Space Rise and the Risks to U.S. Leadership

Commerce, Space, and Science NominationsHouse Science, Space, and Technology Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics · 2025-12-04 · 119th Congress
The House Science, Space, and Technology Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics held this hearing to examine China's expanding civil, commercial, and military space capabilities and assess whether the United States is positioned to retain space leadership. Begins at 0:07:36
Transcript
Highlights

Title

China's rising space power and challenges to US leadership

Purpose

The House Science, Space, and Technology Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics held this hearing to examine China's expanding civil, commercial, and military space capabilities and assess whether the United States is positioned to retain space leadership. Four outside experts testified on China's lunar, Mars, and space station programs, its industrial and rare-earth advantages, and the state of NASA's own Artemis architecture and workforce amid recent budget and staffing cuts. Members from both parties questioned the witnesses on international partnerships, regulatory reform, and NASA's long-term strategy. Begins at0:07:36

Who spoke

Chairman Herodopoulos0:07:36: Opened by framing China's space rise as a defining challenge, citing China's plans for a 2030 lunar landing and 2035 south-pole research base0:10:48, and noted the US surpassed 100 launches from Kennedy Space Center with 95 by SpaceX versus roughly 73 for China0:10:24; later questioned witnesses on why China stays on schedule0:44:58 and on cislunar Lagrange point strategy1:08:48.

Ranking Member Fushi (D-NC)0:13:23: Said China's space capabilities are "fast approaching strategic comparability" with the US0:13:48 and cited a 2025 US-China Economic and Security Review Commission report on China's whole-of-government space strategy0:14:05; criticized the administration's cuts to NASA's civil workforce and R&D investment0:16:57; later questioned Dr. Bisha about being "rifted" from NASA's China-expert role0:49:48 and pressed all four witnesses on NASA reauthorization priorities0:51:43.

Ranking Member Lofgren (full committee, D-CA)0:19:15: Noted NASA has lost nearly 4,000 employees, over 20% of its civil-servant workforce, this year0:21:09, and said the administration is "rushing to shutter nearly half" of Goddard Space Flight Center's main campus under cover of the shutdown0:21:35.

Mr. Dean Cheng, Potomac Institute0:24:10: Explained China's "dual circulation" and "military-civil fusion" concepts driving its space industrial base0:25:27; said Chinese five-year plans grant programmatic and budgetary stability the US lacks0:26:270:45:24; warned of PLA jamming/cyber threats including Volt Typhoon0:28:12 and said committee priorities matter less than ensuring bipartisan consequences for missed schedules0:56:18; flagged China's monopoly on rare-earth processing as a critical vulnerability1:56:52.

Mr. Clayton Swope, CSIS0:29:15: Said China conducted the world's first satellite refueling in geosynchronous orbit within the last few months and tested a reusable launch vehicle within the prior 24 hours0:30:290:31:52; compared the US-China contest to centuries-long great-power rivalries0:32:18; quoted Edward Teller's 1963 warning about "running half-heartedly"0:33:32; later discussed China's plan to build a nuclear power station on the moon with Russia2:08:39.

Dr. Patrick Besha, Global Space Group0:34:07: Outlined geopolitical, security, economic, and scientific dimensions of the space competition, citing Lyndon Johnson's "first in space is first" line0:35:02; said he was among about a dozen colleagues "rifted" earlier in 2025 when NASA's technology policy and strategy office was eliminated0:49:48; recommended robust Earth/space science funding and a long-term Artemis mission manifest0:38:51; warned that cutting postdocs risks losing a generation of scientific mentorship2:13:08.

Dr. Michael Griffin, LogiQ Inc.0:39:23: Said "China is going to the moon" regardless of whether it hits the 2030 target0:40:18; called US efforts "mediocrity" after squandering a 60-year head start0:40:39; quoted Chinese official Ye Peiwen comparing the Moon and Mars to disputed islands0:41:07; recommended Artemis 3 be cancelled and restarted with an architecture not requiring unproven multiple orbital refueling0:43:051:08:01; estimated China's lunar mission has a loss-of-mission probability around 10%, similar to Apollo2:15:12.

Rep. Webster (R-FL)0:56:51: Asked Griffin whether the US is "showing up" in space; Griffin replied "we're staying home"0:57:56 and warned China would set GPS/communications standards if the US does not participate0:58:27.

Rep. Whitesides (D-CA)0:59:25: Asked about the significance of China's planned 2028 Mars sample-return mission amid a proposed FY2026 elimination of NASA's own program0:59:311:00:00; pressed on proposed cuts to international missions1:01:18 and on the current state of NASA's morale and staffing1:02:54.

Rep. Self (R-TX)1:05:07: Questioned Cheng on China's economic slowdown, invoking the Soviet Union comparison1:05:34; pressed Griffin on why Artemis 3 "won't work," eliciting the refueling and boil-off explanation1:07:071:08:01.

Rep. Salinas (D-OR, "Miss Selenus")1:49:11: Asked what can be learned from China's long-term planning for workforce stability, citing Cheng's COMAC example1:49:391:50:35 and Griffin's argument that government must set a consistent "demand signal"1:52:25.

Rep. McCormick (R-GA)1:55:05: Raised China's near-monopoly on rare-earth mining and processing as a national-security choke point, citing roughly 50% military aircraft fleet readiness1:56:04; argued US environmental regulation, not pollution avoidance, is the real barrier1:58:22.

Rep. Foster (D-IL)1:59:43: Cited Niron Magnetics' rare-earth-free permanent magnets from federally funded research2:00:13; raised concern about debris from a fully fueled Starship exploding in low Earth orbit and asked whether anyone has modeled the resulting debris field2:01:402:04:01.

Rep. Kennedy (R-UT)2:04:55: Asked Griffin about the value of international partnerships like the Artemis Accords and the Taiwan-NASA TASA Act2:06:14; asked Besha and Swope about radioisotope and nuclear power systems for surviving the lunar night, noting China has used such systems continuously since 20192:07:082:08:57.

Rep. Beyer (D-VA)2:09:33: Asked Besha about the downstream national-security effects of NASA science cuts (47%) and NSF cuts (56%)2:10:04; raised concern about reverse brain drain of postdocs to Germany, England, and France2:12:03.

Rep. McCormick (R-GA), second round2:22:30: Asked Swope how the US can reduce regulatory burdens on launch and re-entry to stay competitive with China2:22:30.

Key moments

Chairman Herodopoulos said 95 of the US's 100-plus recent launches came from SpaceX alone, versus about 73 total Chinese launches, while China plans a crewed lunar landing by 2030 and a south-pole research base by 20350:10:240:10:48.

Swope disclosed China tested a reusable launch vehicle "within the last 24 hours" and conducted the world's first satellite refueling in geosynchronous orbit within the last few months0:30:290:31:52.

Griffin flatly stated NASA's current Artemis 3 lunar-lander architecture "cannot work" due to an undemonstrated number of orbital refueling flights and propellant boil-off during long loiter times, recommending the mission be cancelled1:07:361:08:01.

Lofgren said NASA has lost nearly 4,000 employees (over 20% of its civil-servant workforce) this year and is shuttering nearly half of Goddard Space Flight Center's main campus0:21:090:21:35.

Dr. Besha revealed he and about a dozen colleagues were "rifted" earlier in 2025 when NASA's technology policy and strategy office—which included NASA's top China expert—was eliminated0:49:48.

Griffin quoted former Chinese lunar-exploration director Ye Peiwen comparing unclaimed celestial bodies to disputed South China Sea islands: "if we can go but don't go, future generations would condemn us"0:41:07.

Cheng and McCormick highlighted that China dominates not just rare-earth mining but especially rare-earth processing, calling additional non-China processing facilities essential to breaking the monopoly1:56:521:58:22.

Foster raised the specter of a fully fueled Starship exploding in low Earth orbit amid plans for hundreds of Starship missions a year, questioning whether the resulting debris field has been modeled against assets like Golden Dome2:01:402:04:01.

Whitesides noted NASA's Mars Sample Return program—called the "highest priority of multiple decadal surveys"—would be eliminated entirely under the FY2026 budget request, even as China targets a 2028 Mars sample-return launch1:00:001:00:13.

On a lightning round, Cheng, Besha, and Griffin all answered "no" or "maybe" when asked if NASA is on track to land astronauts on the moon before Chinese taikonauts2:19:03.

Metadata

CommitteeHouse Science, Space, and Technology Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics
Chamber / CongressHouse · 119th Congress
Date2025-12-04
TypeHearing
Witnesses
Mr. Dean Cheng — Senior Fellow, The Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Dr. Patrick Besha — Founder, Global Space Group
Mr. Clayton Swope — Deputy Director, Aerospace Security Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Dr. Michael Griffin — Co-President, LogiQ, Inc,
Videoyoutube
Transcript279 caption blocks · 16,556 words · 2:26:58 runtime
EventCongress.gov 118699