▶ 0:26:03>> we have a business meeting to take up and then we have a hearing. The ranking member and I have worked on the agenda for the business meeting. We have in front of us 10 of our nominees ready to go.
▶ 0:26:20We have decided we are going to have a voice vote on each of them except we will have a roll call vote on puzer, kapur, and rinaldi. The rest will be by voice vote. With that, let's start with jacob helberg of florida to be undersecretary of state of economic growth, energy, and environment. Is there a motion to send it to the floor?
▶ 0:26:52It's been moved. Seconded. Seconded that we send jacob helberg to the floor. All those in favor signify by saying aye. Opposed, nay. >> Mr. chairman, I have other people who would like to be recorded as no.
▶ 0:27:15Chair Risch: I wonder if we could a -- yes, obviously we will report them as no.
▶ 0:27:21Sen. Shaheen: Sure, we are happy to do that.
▶ 0:27:24Chair Risch: Voice votes first. Regimen bank of new york to be chief executive officer of the international developer and finance corporations full of moved, seconded. All those in favor signify by saying aye. Opposed, nay. Howard brodie of florida to be ambassador extraordinary of the united states of finland. Is there a motion? It's been moved and seconded. All those in favor signify by saying aye.
▶ 0:27:54Chair Risch: Opposed, nay. Ayes have it. Luigi rinaldi of new york -- I'm sorry. Nicholas merrick of texas to be ambassador to the czech republic. Is there a motion? Seconded. It's been seconded. All those in favor signify by saying aye. Opposed, nay. Ayes have it. Arthur fisher of north carolina to be ambassador to austria.
▶ 0:28:26Chair Risch: Is there a motion? >> seconded chair risch: all those in favor signify by saying aye. Opposed, nay. Ayes have it. Roman pipko of florida to be ambassador to estonia. All those in here are signify by saying aye. Proposed, -- opposed, nay. Ayes have it. Stacey feinberg of california to be ambassador to luxembourg. Is there a motion? Moved and seconded.
▶ 0:28:55Chair Risch: All those in favor signify by saying aye. Opposed, nay. Ayes have it. We will take up three unable call vote. We will start with andrew coster. -- andrew puzde.r moved and seconded we send puzder to the floor. Senator shaheen?
▶ 0:29:18Sen. Shaheen: Thank you, Mr. chairman. I was, despite my concerns about some of his responses at the hearing, I didn't get a chance to ask him questions, and I was willing to forgo some of his past issues around with his first wife because she has been willing to forgo that. But we just got his responses to questions.
▶ 0:29:48Sen. Shaheen: Now, this is someone being submitted to be ambassador to the eu. The eu is probably one of our most important allies, if not the most important. The responses we got from Mr. puzder are just insulting. They are one sentence. These are serious questions. If confirmed, would you advocate for the seizure of russian assets in europe to help rebuild ukraine?
▶ 0:30:17Sen. Shaheen: He basically says the united states as discussed with the g7 and the european union the disposition of immobilized russian solvent assets and the administration has made clear all options on the table. That is not an answer to an issue that the congress is overwhelmingly supported. I'm going to vote against Mr. puzder, and I think that view is shared by most of my democratic colleagues.
▶ 0:30:48Sen. Shaheen: I would hope that all of us on this committee would demand that people who come before us who are being appointed to these critical positions take them seriously enough to give us real answers when we have serious questions that we are asking. So I am very concerned about that. I'm willing to reconsider my vote when it comes to the floor if he shows that he is really serious about this job. But clearly by his answers he is not serious.
▶ 0:31:15Chair Risch: Thank you, senator shaheen. I think we have all been frustrated over the years with responses from time to time. I think you could is is well taken -- I think your criticism is well taken. I still think we should confirm him and I'm going to vote to confirm him. I will urge that he sit down with you to -- I agree. First of all, this is an incredibly important position, being ambassador to the european union.
▶ 0:31:44Chair Risch: Is there for the debate on the nomination acknowledged if jeff on the nomination --on the nomination? If not, the clerk will call the roll. [roll call]
▶ 0:32:31Chair Risch: The motion is passed. The nomination will be referred to the floor. We will take up paul kapur of california for secretary of state for south asian affairs. Is there a motion? Second? It's been moved and seconded to send paul kapur to the floor. Is there debate on this nomination? Senator shaheen?
▶ 0:32:55Sen. Shaheen: Mr. chairman, again, I appreciate paul kapur's expertise, but I found his answer on afghanistan totally unacceptable and amount -- and not appropriate for somebody who is planning to take over the position on south asian affairs.
▶ 0:33:14Sen. Shaheen: The fact that he is willing to send afghans back home and not willing to acknowledge the threat that the taliban poses to those people who have risked their lives and their families' lives to help our american servicemen and women during the war in afghanistan is just totally acceptable in my mind. All of us should be concerned about that.
▶ 0:33:45Sen. Shaheen: The support for afghans to come to the united states after they served with our troops and whether it was interpreters or in plurals to help the united states was something that was a bipartisan position. It is something I had worked on with john mccain for many years. There are others on this committee who have worked on that.
▶ 0:34:09Sen. Shaheen: The fact that we would put somebody in a position who didn't have the backbone to stand up and say that the taliban are a threat and we shouldn't be sending afghans back because we know they are going to get killed is not acceptable. I intend to vote against him.
▶ 0:34:27Sen. Shaheen: I would hope that if he is approved, which it appears based on where the rest of this committee is, that will happen, but I hope people will share with him concerns about what that position means to future countries who we might be asking to join us and help our men and women on the ground in combat. Thank you, Mr. chairman.
▶ 0:34:52Chair Risch: Thank you, senator vitter I'm sure Mr. kapur is going to get a lot of advice in the directions you have lobbied for and spoke for as we go forward. I'm going to move in favor of Mr. kapur. Is there further debate? Senator merkley.
▶ 0:35:12Sen. Merkley: I think we should recognize that we recognize that when we fail to stand by those in afghanistan we are not just betraying our visit promise to them, but we are endangering american enterprises in the future around the world where we need cooperation and support of local individuals. If we betray now those who are so critical in supporting our mission and often supporting and saving the lives of americans, why should anybody partner with us in the future?
▶ 0:35:43Sen. Merkley: His position is completely unacceptable, and I would hope we would all recognize that and not forward this nomination.
▶ 0:35:52Chair Risch: Thank you, senator merkley. Is there further debate on the nomination? Not, clerk will call the roll. [rollcall]
▶ 0:36:34Sen. Shaheen: I'm sorry, Mr. schatz is no by proxy. Mr. van hollen is no by proxy. Want to start over? Senator booker is no by proxy. No by proxy.
▶ 0:37:06Chair Risch: Aye. The motion has passed. The nomination is sent to the floor with the committee's recommendation. Lastly, we have luigi rinaldi from new york to be ambassador to uruguay. Is there a motion? Second. It's been moved and seconded that Mr. rinaldi be sent to the floor. Senator shaheen?
▶ 0:37:37Sen. Shaheen: Thank you, Mr. chairman. Again, Mr. rinaldi was not someone I had the opportunity to question because I wasn't able to stay at his hearing a full-time. Uruguay has become a very important ally in latin america. It is very distressing that Mr.
▶ 0:38:05Sen. Shaheen: Rinaldi didn't seem to have any understanding at all about the country, about the role of ambassador, about what we need to do going forward. I intend to vote against him.
▶ 0:38:18Chair Risch: Thank you, senator shaheen. Is there further debate? If not, clerk will call the roll. [roll call]
▶ 0:38:57Sen. Shaheen: No by proxy -- oops. [laughter]
▶ 0:39:18Chair Risch: Thank you. The motion is passed, Mr. rinaldi will be sent to the floor. That concludes our business meeting. Thank you for the members to showing up as quickly as we can. Everybody has a lot of moving parts here, but we appreciate your cooperation. That concludes our business meeting. And from there we are going to move to a policy hearing.
▶ 0:39:45Chair Risch: This morning's hearing is on the nato summit of 2025 assessment of transatlantic security this is coming up quite soon. We don't have an ambassador in place. The ranking member and I have been discussing that. Both of us are of the mind that we need an ambassador in place and we hope we can get the cooperations moving forward, notwithstanding every thing else going on.
▶ 0:40:14Chair Risch: This is particularly at this point in time with what is happening in europe, it is important we have an ambassador. To eyewitnesses, thank you. I am going to make an opening statement and yield to senator shaheen. We will then hear from each of you your thoughts and we really appreciate you coming here to talk with us today, and that people -- and then we will go to a round of questions for the witnesses.
▶ 0:40:46Chair Risch: Nato was founded to protect the united states and transatlantic partners from the aggression of those who seek to harm us. It was russian aggression in a divided berlin that finally convinced our partners to sign the treaty. The world has endured a lot in the past 76 years since then, but nato has played a crucial role in preserving stability and security. It is this security that is provided room for enormous U.S. and european economic prosperity.
▶ 0:41:16Chair Risch: Today as in times past, nato must adapt to new changes and new challenges. Our alliance faces unprecedented threats from a rising china, belligerent russia, and rogue actors in iran, north korea, and elsewhere.
▶ 0:41:31Chair Risch: This year's nato summit presents a unique opportunity to assess the threats facing our alliance and the response they demand from us if we hope to maintain the security and stability the world has enjoyed for so long, much of it due to what nato offers us. Over the last decayed, but particularly the last three years, putin's aggression has created the largest security crisis in europe since the second world war.
▶ 0:41:57Chair Risch: In 2014 russia invaded ukraine for the first time in europe did little to deter further aggression. After the full-scale invasion of 2022, europe leaders made momentous pledges to take more responsibility. Three years on, europe still as a long way to go. Since january 20, president trump has worked diligently to determine whether peace between ukraine and russia is possible.
▶ 0:42:24Chair Risch: We strongly support his efforts to secure a lasting peace in the region. Russia's actions demonstrate unwillingness to support peace and a preference for war to continue. A war that has radically reshaped the security let's get in europe and proving one indisputable fact, nato is more relevant than ever and will be for decades to come. There are still actors who seek to subvert america can our allies, the values we hold that the opiate russia's invasion of the -- values that we hold dear.
▶ 0:42:57Chair Risch: Russia's invasion of ukraine prove we do not live in "a post-conflict era." secretary general stoltenberg -- as secretary-general rutte points out, russia could use a weapon in years. There are still those and it would take U.S. support for granted. For years our european allies have left the heavy the thing to american by their own admission did not pull their own weight in defense spending.
▶ 0:43:28Chair Risch: This is starting to change, thankfully. Nato has succeeded because there is no first- 'sor second-tier membership. Failure of europe to spend appropriately on defense started to create the very tears -- tiers that need worked to avoid. Europeans must make dramatic investment in their defense. U.S. taxpayers will not continue to put their bill.
▶ 0:43:55Chair Risch: Thank you president trump's leadership -- thanks to president trump leadership since the took office, europe understands this. The number of allies fulfilling their defense spending pledges has risen from six members in 2017 one president trump first took office to 23 today, with many more presenting plans to reach to present by the en -- 2% by the end of this year.
▶ 0:44:24Chair Risch: This is great progress command I'm glad secretary-general ru tte has called for more defense capacity. They must raise levels to 5% of gdp and not defense-adjacent expenditures. That means equipment, recruitment, developing innovative technologies that enhance -- many of these topics will be discussed at the nato summit in june and I look forward to seeing the outcomes of those conversations.
▶ 0:44:53Chair Risch: Russia is not the only threat nato faces. Nato security umbrella does not and should not cover asia, but iran, north korea, and china actively support russia's war in ukraine. His authoritarian actors are not operating in silo -- these authoritarian actors are not operating in silos and a nano cannot think of them as such. China poses risks to nato military but military b readiness.
▶ 0:45:19Chair Risch: The alliance must set standards for members to guard against malign chinese forces that threaten nato security in europe. Above all, we must remember that we are united. There may be disagreements from trade to technology, but the threats we face are exist agile, and none of us can face -- are existential, and it none of us can face them alone. Nato is still the most successful political and military organization in the history of this planet. Adversaries who seek to do us harm would be wise to recognize that fact.
▶ 0:45:51Chair Risch: I'm grateful to our witnesses for being with us today and look forward to a productive conversation on the future of the nato alliance. With that, I yield to the distinguished ranking member senator shaheen.
▶ 0:46:06Sen. Shaheen: We appreciate your willingness to sit through a business meeting while we wait for your testimony. I want to actually begin by going to a different region of the world, expressing my concern about the conflict between israel and iran. The exchange of missile attacks not only endangers our partners in the region, but also the safety of american service members, diplomats, and their families. I asked secretary hegseth about this in an earlier hearing.
▶ 0:46:35Sen. Shaheen: We have a 40,000 troops in the region, many of whom are within range of iranian missiles. He was not at all clear about what we're doing to protect those service members. Mr. chairman, I hope that we will ask the administration on the part of this committee for everything of what is going on -- for a briefing on what is going on in this area.
▶ 0:46:58Chair Risch: Thank you. We talked about that and we will try to make that happen.
▶ 0:47:03Sen. Shaheen: Great, thank you.
▶ 0:47:05Chair Risch: Legitimate request.
▶ 0:47:10Sen. Shaheen: One of the things this conflict does is it makes the upcoming nato summit and the need for international partners, as the chairman has said, even more consequential. As cochairman of the nato observer group, I will be attending the summit along with senator tillis and we hope to have a good bipartisan delegation from the senate. The support for nato is also reflected at home. A recent pew research poll found that nearly two thirds of U.S. adults see a benefit to nato membership.
▶ 0:47:40Sen. Shaheen: Our european allies feel the same despite the rhetoric and the trade practices from this administration, our allies continue to recognize nato's value, perhaps now more than ever.
▶ 0:47:54Sen. Shaheen: According to official figures, 23 out of nato's 32 member states currently meet or exceed the defense spending threshold of 2% minus the chairman said, I agree with him -- and as the chairman said, I certainly agree with him that I have out of the summit will come in agreement to adopt 5% as the defense spending target at the hague summit. Sweden and the netherlands just announced plans to spend 5% of gdp on defense.
▶ 0:48:22Sen. Shaheen: These increases are not the result of trade policies or tariffs. They are a direct response to russian aggression to vladimir putin's willingness to lay waste to ukraine. As the nato secretary-general rutte has said, "we are all on the eastern flank now." the reality is clear -- if putin wins in ukraine, he will not stop there.
▶ 0:48:50Sen. Shaheen: He has sent troops into belarus and threatens the balkans, the baltic states, and the black sea. Russia's ambitions also continue to play out over our own borders through the kremlin's repeated attacks on our financial institutions on energy infrastructure. That is why I don't understand the administration's continued refusal to lower the price cap for russian oil sanctions at the g7. It would have put more pressure on putin.
▶ 0:49:18Sen. Shaheen: I think congress needs to act, and we have legislation supported by 82 members of the senate that would put invites additional sanctions on vladimir putin. -- put in place additional sanctions on vladimir putin. I think we should get that done as soon as possible. I think we shouldn't stop there, that nato membership should be on the table for ukraine.
▶ 0:49:40Sen. Shaheen: Nato's open-door policy enshrined in the washington tree should -- washington tree should not be up for negotiation to satisfy what vladimir putin wants, but its membership should determine who has that opportunity to get into the alliance, and ukraine's membership would strengthen that . They have the largest army in europe, the most experienced army in europe at this point.
▶ 0:50:06Sen. Shaheen: And we are developing cutting-edge countermeasures based on ukraine's real-time experience against russian systems. We should also not forget the power of alliances into taking on adversaries like russia or iran, or others. As senator risch has rightly said, the nato alliance is the most successful political and defensive organization that has ever been on the face of the planet.
▶ 0:50:30Sen. Shaheen: I agree with that, and I hope our witnesses today can speak to the full picture for nato, the challenges that nato should address at this year's summit, as well as the opportunities and advantages nato offers each of its members. I very much look forward to hearing your thoughts and to our discussion. Thank you, Mr. chairman.
▶ 0:50:49Chair Risch: Thank you, senator shaheen. We have two distinguish witnesses. I will ask you to keep your remarks to five minutes. You will get questions from the committee. If you have other remarks, or you go beyond five minutes, put them in writing for the record and we will see that they are included in the record. We sincerely appreciate you coming here. We're going to start with Mr.
▶ 0:51:16Chair Risch: Peter rough, senior fellow and director of the center on europe and eurasia at the hudson institute, where he focuses on national secured and foreign policy. He writes comments on U.S. foreign policy and regularly use official delegations, news media, public intellectuals, academics, and business leaders, and convenes several dialogues.
▶ 0:51:41Chair Risch: In the past he served as the white house office of strategic initiatives usaid and special operations group. He holds a ba from the and -- from the george washington university and ma from tufts university. He has been named a next-generation leader at several think tanks including the munich security conference, which we all know. Mr. rough, the floor is yours.
▶ 0:52:12Mr. Rough: Thank you, chairman risch, ranking member shaheen, members of the committee, for the opportunity to testify today. My name is peter rough and I'm the director of the center for europe and eurasia on the -- at the hudson institute. My views are on my own and should not be construed as that of hudson. For starters, it is worth repeating that europe remains a vital importance to the united states.
▶ 0:52:40Mr. Rough: With the stock of two-way foreign investment totaling 7.5 trillion U.S. dollars in 2023, the netherlands, host of next week's nato summit, holds the largest fbi position in the united states of any country in the world. Worryingly, the peace and prosperity of europe are under threat.
▶ 0:52:59Mr. Rough: Russia's reconstitution of its leningrad military district, de facto takeover of belarus, plans to expand and enlarge ground forces, expand realnetworks along the russian-finnish border, and waves of hybrid attacks uphold the truth about russia remains implacably hostile to the lines. An intelligence assessment characterizes it as having changed character from reconstruction to intensified military buildup.
▶ 0:53:26Mr. Rough: As nato's secretary-general mark rutte put it, either spend on defense or learn to speak russian. Ministers in brussels agreed it to new capability targets that represent 30% increase over existing goals.
▶ 0:53:45Mr. Rough: At the nato summit, the alliance will agree to a new investment pledge, 5% of gross to mystic product for defense, of which 3.5% is to be set aside for hard power, while 1.5% is to be earmarked for related costs such as cybersecurity and infrastructure. Central to this breakthrough is germany, which has taken up the mantle of leadership under the new chancellor, frederick merz .
▶ 0:54:11Mr. Rough: Germany is committed to confronting economic power into military capabilities. This sets up a new nato bargain, five 45. In return for nato adopting the spending target, president trump should reiterate the united states ironclad commitment to article five of the washington tree. To turn promises into reality, nato should consider supplementing defense ministerials with the finance ministerial.
▶ 0:54:41Mr. Rough: There is no bigger returned to russian aggression in europe then deployed forces the general has consistently recommended that we maintain our current force foster to counteract russia's local superiority on the eastern flank of the alliance. As we have seen this week, U.S. bases in europe project american power into other theaters.
▶ 0:55:03Mr. Rough: The kc- tankers1 are on airbases in spain, greece, and the united kingdom, as the president raises options in iran. Our ambassador to nato has promised to "make sure there are no security gaps" in europe as the U.S. undertakes the global force foster review. This will be important for the strategic enablers, which europe still lacks.
▶ 0:55:33Mr. Rough: Russia cannot take on it on its own. Unfortunately, it now enjoys close defense industrial ties with the people's republic of china, whose supply of machine tools and microelectronics have power to the russian war on ukraine. Russia's drones, which account for more casualties in ukraine than any other weapons system, are derivatives of iran's family of unmanned aerial vehicles. North korean shells make up half of all russian artillery fired in certain sectors of the frontline.
▶ 0:56:00Mr. Rough: Earlier this year the division-sized force of north korean troops played a decisive role in russia's counteroffensive. Questions provided each of his partners with diplomatic, technological, -- russia has provided each of its partners with diplomatic, technological, and economic benefits wasn't and economic benefits wa.
▶ 0:56:27Mr. Rough: As the president suggested at the g7 two days ago, whatever sanctions europeans are requesting of the united states should be mirrored by similar actions from allies on the continent. Given the presence of a major were in eastern europe, no nato summit can ignore the plight of ukraine. It is not expected that you can will receive significant mention in the summa decoration, but leadership should plan now rather than later as funding runs out in the coming months.
▶ 0:56:54Mr. Rough: Europe will shoulder much of the load, but for the systems europe cannot replace, nature leaders should explore attitudes towards another supplemental direct military sales. The U.S. could backfill europe's air defenses as those countries transfer interceptors ukraine. Thank you for the opportunity to testify today and I look forward to the discussion.
▶ 0:57:15Chair Risch: Thank you very much. We will now turn to Dr. alina polyakova, president and ceo for the center for european policy analysis, where she focuses on transatlantic relations and european security. She is the senior fellow at the henry a. Kissinger center for global affairs at the johns hopkins university school of advanced international studies.
▶ 0:57:45Chair Risch: . Lee she held roles at the brookings institution and atlanta count -- previously she elbows at the brookings institution and lanna counsel. -- atlantic council. The international school for scholars in the fulbright foundation, among others. She serves on the board of the pre-russia foundation and is a member of the scientific council of the royal institute. She holds a phd an m.a.
▶ 0:58:08Chair Risch: In sociology from the university of california, berkeley, and bachelors in economics and sociology from emory university. Dr. polyakova, the floor is yours.
▶ 0:58:22Ms. Polyakova: Thank you so much, chairman risch and ranking member shaheen and established members of the committee. It is a true honor to address you today on a critical matter of U.S. national security, the 2025 nato summit. As you know, the v-6 best in these testimonies are not reflected those of the center for european -- the views expressed in this testament do not reflected the center for european policy analysis.
▶ 0:58:50Ms. Polyakova: The nato summit is a pivotal moment as the transatlantic committee conference volatile geopolitical landscape and the growing, growing cooperation between china, iran, north korea. The summit represents a powerful opportunity for the united states to engage with allies as they committed to massive new defense spending levels, because as was true at nato's founding and is still the case today, the alliance remains central to the vital national security interests of defending the U.S. homeland.
▶ 0:59:19Ms. Polyakova: Nato's european allies are poised to commit 5% of gdp to defense spending, a significant and appropriate level given the growing russian threat to nato and the broader geopolitical environment. This new commitment signifies a profound transformation positioning rep as an example for other partners, a point aptly made by the secretary of defense pete hegseth in his remarks to indo-pacific partners last month. The trump administration deserves a great deal of credit for pushing european allies to step up in such a significant way on defense.
▶ 0:59:49Ms. Polyakova: U.S. leadership both from the executive branch, also from the members of congress, will be instrumental in ensuring that these financial commitments translate into concrete defense capabilities that will ultimately benefit global U.S. national security interests. Showing allied unity at the summit will serve as an important deterrent. Environ testimony I write specific a desk in my written testimony I provide specific examples I will summarize you. Europe is stepping up, but U.S.
▶ 1:00:18Ms. Polyakova: Leadership and commitment and principle people and resources remain critical for nato' continued success at the strongests no sherry alliance in history. European allies are taking the right steps by setting these ambitious spending targets to balance the burden-sharing relationship. As secretary-general rutte said, it is our interest to have a europe that is stronger and more lethal. There is no magic wand that would allow european allies to produce highly competent forth that could apply rapidly across the continent.
▶ 1:00:48Ms. Polyakova: That requires years of planning, as our military commanders will likely confirm. Europe would be a sitting duck for putin without U.S. presence, capabilities, and leadership for nato. U.S. is indeed the indispensable nation for nato and the key enabler for european capabilities, as the alliance confronts putin's growing appetite to use military force in europe. Number two, russia is the threat to nato that we feared it was the beginning of russia's invasion of ukraine.
▶ 1:01:19Ms. Polyakova: As the general recently testified, russia's military has shown a remarkable ability to adapt and reconstitute. Thanks to support from its partners, russia is carrying out an increasingly aggressive shadow war against nato in europe, and it is on a path to long-term societal militarization. These are trends that we did not see even during the cold war era. Nato is not well-positioned to respond to the dual challenges of russia's conventional and nonconventional threats.
▶ 1:01:49Ms. Polyakova: This means that russia's actions are signaling that russia will prepare and is actively preparing for a direct military confrontation with nato, and we need a comprehensive strategy to respond to this threat. Number three, my last point, nato's open-door policy is a core asset to the alliance and the united states. Since the end of the cold war, nato has doubled in size from 16 to 32 members.
▶ 1:02:17Ms. Polyakova: The integration of the former soviet bloc states in the 1990's and early 2000 says intranet only stability in europe and that these countries would be the longest pro-american allies, still the case today. The most recent inclusion of finland and sweden has added significantly to nato's capabilities and strategic depth. Ukraine will also be a significant asset to nato, bringing the largest, most battle tested army to europe with the most cutting-edge capabilities.
▶ 1:02:42Ms. Polyakova: I yield the rest of my time and I thank you for your time and I look forward to your questions.
▶ 1:02:48Chair Risch: Thank you to both of you. You both have deep, deep knowledge of the matter that is near and dear to everybody's heart on this committee. We embrace nato and want to see it continue to prosper. It is, I believe, truly stronger today than it has ever been. Putin seems to never miss an opportunity to make a mistake.
▶ 1:03:19Chair Risch: The mistakes he has made has actually done a lot to strengthen nato, not the least of which is to add two new members at the considerably longer border than his with nato . We will continue to support nato in every way we can. I have a question for each and I would like your thoughts. I believe although putin has made a lot of mistakes, there is a mistake I don't think he will make. I don't think he will engage militarily a nato country.
▶ 1:03:51Chair Risch: We have committed to our allies that article five means exactly what it says. That includes the baltic states and everybody between there and los angeles. I personally met with the baltics right after the invasion of ukraine. They were concerned, and I shared our position and policy of the united states is not one square inch of nato ground will be given up. Not one square inch. I think that message has been conveyed to putin loud and clear. I think he understands it.
▶ 1:04:22Chair Risch: I don't think he will make that mistake, which would be a disaster first country. Your thoughts, please.
▶ 1:04:29Mr. Rough: Well, sir, deterrence is a matter of capabilities and will, and there could be three or four measures nato might undertake to strengthen article five. What aging has been undertaking -- putin has been undertaking a campaign of hybrid attacked. In matthew worth considering calling -- it might be worth considering calling in article four meeting of the atlantic council.
▶ 1:04:57Mr. Rough: Operation baltic century kicked off in january to guard against attacks. Secondly, speaking of the baltics in might be worth considering upgrading the battle group in estonia to brigade level. We have this in lithuania thanks to the german brigade as of last month which was activated. Quite frankly, estonians have invested more in long-range fire and pre-positioning stocks.
▶ 1:05:24Mr. Rough: It is expensive to host a brigade. The framework nation of the u.k. Has only two maneuverable heavy brigades in the british army today. Third, in might be worthwhile considering the alliance in romanian romania and poland shooting down missiles and drones, violating nato's airspace. We have seen drones land across from any and missile impact in eastern poland killing farmers in poland.
▶ 1:05:54Mr. Rough: That would be a measure that I don't think would be escalatory, but would reinforce article five, which is so important.
▶ 1:05:59Chair Risch: Good thoughts. Dcdoctor?
▶ 1:06:05Ms. Polyakova: I agree completely with my calling. Your question is an important one, chairman. I would've agreed with you a few years ago that russia would not risk a direct confrontation with nato I think at this point seeing the trends in russia's military capabilities, reconstitution, adaptation, buildup and russian forces, there is no other reason to do that unless you are expecting a confrontation with a much larger potential adversary then ukraine, because just to fight the war in ukraine russia
▶ 1:06:36Ms. Polyakova: Has a need to do what it is currently doing. That is a clear signal that there are long-term strategic plans. I'm not sure it will happen in the next five years, as secretary-general rutte said, but no longer a 20- or 25-year horizon. Whether that happens or not depends a huge amount on the united states in particular. Some of the comments my colleague Mr.
▶ 1:07:02Ms. Polyakova: Rough made about supporting the eastern flank are critical. Russia will be deterred if they cs from a position of strength with our allies. In addition to what peter just suggested, there are huge opportunities and learning from increased deployment of autonomous systems in the black sea in particular as well as what our allies have been doing in the northern baltic region to further push back and provide more isr capabilities so we can at least have a red flag warning if we are seeing some sort of
▶ 1:07:33Ms. Polyakova: Confrontation emerging from russia. The shadow war, hybrid threats russia has been carrying out across europe are significant and very aggressive. We have a few deterrent capabilities there.
▶ 1:07:44Chair Risch: Good thoughts from all of you. Senator shaheen.
▶ 1:07:48Sen. Shaheen: Thank you both very much for your testimony . Dr. polyakova, I was struck by your talk about the increased militarization of russian society, because I have continued to believe that one of the most important reasons to support ukraine is because it sends a very strong message to not just our allies and partners that we would be there for them, but to our adversaries who threatened the united states.
▶ 1:08:17Sen. Shaheen: It was pointed out to me recently that one of the other really important aspects of that is we do not want to be in a position in five or 10 years down the road where russia actually is able to absorb ukraine and has access to all of the increased buildup that ukraine has done and their expertise, technology, innovation, to go against nato and our other allies and
▶ 1:08:48Sen. Shaheen: Partners. Can you talk about that and how you calibrate that concern against other issues with respect to russia?
▶ 1:08:59Ms. Polyakova: Thank you so much for that question, senator shaheen. It is true that militarization of russian society is not new, but it has accelerated significantly since russia's invasion of ukraine. What I mean by that is there is consistent reporting that children as young as kindergarten age are receiving military drill education, and this continues on through the school ages and of course up to the years of military service. This is deeply, deeply concerning for a variety of reasons, as you can imagine.
▶ 1:09:30Ms. Polyakova: That being said, do your point about what would be the consequences if russia was able to eventually completely take over ukraine, the first consequence is how extensive it would be for nato -- expensive it would be for nato to then have ukraine with belarus, russia's positions in selling that as well, to defend against that. That will cost us more than what we are spending and european allies are spending on ukraine.
▶ 1:10:02Ms. Polyakova: There is real expense aside from security threat. Broadly speaking it is important to remember that russia is a strategic and direct threat to the united states, not just allies in ukraine. It seeks to undermine us as its core objective, the united states as global leader. It is not about territory in the donetsk region. It is about deposing the united states as leader of the free world.
▶ 1:10:31Ms. Polyakova: That is why russia has partnerships with china and others.
▶ 1:10:34Sen. Shaheen: And do you think this administration and its president recognize that?
▶ 1:10:39Ms. Polyakova: I think there are certainly members of the administration that you recognize that. Personally I would like to see them be very clear to our allies at the summit. I think the one question that a lot of european allies have is are we aligned on the threat perception between all the nato partners, not just the united states. Do we have the same understanding of the threat that russia represents? If we can get movement on that at the summit, that would be significant.
▶ 1:11:07Sen. Shaheen: Mr. rough, can you answer that question as well?
▶ 1:11:11Mr. Rough: I wouldn't note that american weapons continue to transit via poland into ukraine and there is sanctions in place even if we quibble about the size and scope of it and sections enforcement. The united states is a member of nato. Just two weeks ago nato held a defense ministerial, on the sidelines of which the ukraine nato council met as well as the ukraine defense contact group, 20 billion euros in a new security assistance pledged this year. While the U.S.
▶ 1:11:40Mr. Rough: Is adopting this mediating role, this form of neutrality almost between ukraine and russia, it is bending towards ukraine, I would say. Go ahead, senator.
▶ 1:11:49Sen. Shaheen: Thank you. Are either of you survived that russia has not come to the aid of iran in the current conflict with israel, that they are not providing the weapons, or at least news reports are they are not providing the weapons iran has requested?
▶ 1:12:06Mr. Rough: I do think it was notable about a phone call the president help with president putin, there was a heavy section on iran and the president said explicitly in his own readout that they focused a little on ukraine. I think president putin is trying to vector the americans against the israelis and shut down the war so iranians can recover. In that sense he is carrying diplomat a quarter, the russians are -- diplomatic water, the russians are, for the iranians.
▶ 1:12:36Ms. Polyakova: Very briefly, I'm not surprised because the russians are not a reliable partner. We saw this in syria, they tried to protect bashar al-assad, but when the fall of his regime came, the russians were nowhere to be found. That is a message we can convey across the world as the united states.
▶ 1:12:52Sen. Shaheen: Thank you both.
▶ 1:12:53Chair Risch: Senator ricketts.
▶ 1:12:56Sen. Ricketts: Thank you to our witnesses to testify today. At 75th anniversary of nato summit in washington last year, conversations about the indo -pacific took stage in ways they never have before. The alliance's decision to been engagement with japan, south korea, australia, new zealand, signaled a shift in strategic priorities. This was a recognition that europe and the indo-pacific are linked.
▶ 1:13:26Sen. Ricketts: Nato members are deploying assets to the region and coordinating cyber and hybrid defense cooperation with indo-pacific allies. The summit's enforcement of the nato-indo-pacific partnership along with the growing defense- industrial inc. Between south korea, japan, and european nato members, marks and evolution in thewhat is the real value of nas indo pacific outreach and what should future coordination look like?
▶ 1:13:54Mr. Rough: For one, I think it is american interest that there is a pro-american balance of power on both ends of the eurasian landmass. If the russians are going to forge tight links with the chinese, north koreans and iranians, I think it behooves us to try and bring together lessons learned on both sides of the eurasian landmass to learn lessons on industrial base cooperation.
▶ 1:14:20Mr. Rough: Poland recently signed a major procurement deal with south korea for the provision of tanks for example. I think there is a lot of mutual support that can be undertaken in the free world amongst partners and allies and we can say or -- we can share common threat perception.
▶ 1:14:38Mr. Rough: That is one of the reasons why nato should be a russia focused continental deterrence organization with a role in the indo pacific because they can see exactly what is taking place, how china's aggression is unfolding and that is a useful exercise for our partners.
▶ 1:14:59Sen. Ricketts: Are there strategies to develop technology in the region?
▶ 1:15:03Mr. Rough: The office in tokyo was ultimately blocked by the french. There are opportunities for tighter linkage. Clearly japan and south korea have first-rate cutting-edge technology and defense industrial base capabilities which our european partners could learn from and I would encourage collaboration in all of those areas.
▶ 1:15:24Sen. Ricketts: You mentioned the five or five, nato going to 5% of gdp defense spending target. This would include 3.5% for core military spending and 1.5% for broader security related measures. At the summit in 2020 -- in 2014, we saw nato committing to 2% and it took a decade for most of the allies to get moving in that direction. Today's environment does not allow for a decade to get to 5%.
▶ 1:15:55Sen. Ricketts: You said you would ratify a new five-year goal to be ratified -- to be achieved in a five-year horizon. Can you tell me why it is so important?
▶ 1:16:05Sen. Ricketts: Simply put, the intelligence assessments suggest there is an urgent threat and that russia is rebuilding. Standing up the new 44th army corps outside finland. New targets are to put one point -- 1.5 million men under arms. All of that suggesting russia will be fading nato -- facing nato once the war in ukraine is officially wound down. It is important that we begin to take those measures.
▶ 1:16:33Sen. Ricketts: It is not just the time horizon but on top of that, I think very carefully crafted what the categories are for 3.5 and 1.5% of gdp, so areas like climate spending don't count towards defense adjacent military expenditures.
▶ 1:16:49Sen. Ricketts: Dr. polyakova, do you have anything you want to add to that?
▶ 1:16:52Dr. Polyakova: I completely agree and I think the reason that has to happen more rapidly is that europe has no choice at this point. There is broad recognition of that. I would like to see european allies commit to 5% for core defense spending instead of the 3.5%. But if they move in that direction, we need to also spend more on our defense because we are below 3.5% right now.
▶ 1:17:25Dr. Polyakova: That would be the counterpoint.
▶ 1:17:26Sen. Ricketts: I've got a few seconds of time left. Mr. rough, you spoke about ai diffusion. Can you talk about what the previous policy was, light was so insulting to our allies like poland?
▶ 1:17:40Sen. Ricketts: In january, the outgoing biden administration issued an ai diffusion rule that teared our allies into different categories for ai chips and poland was considered a category two partner meaning it did not have access to certain ai chips and this could have implications for the rollout of six g, implications for the types of software embedded in different weapons systems like the f-35.
▶ 1:18:10Sen. Ricketts: I think the european commission and our eastern european allies who never understood why they were placed in category two are pleased that the trump and has lifted that rule.
▶ 1:18:23Sen. Ricketts: Thank you very much.
▶ 1:18:25Chair Risch: Senator merkley.
▶ 1:18:27Sen. Merkley: Thank you very much. In your testimony, you note prole -- for long-term strategic's -- strategic stability and security, -- you go on to note the many values that come from that battlefield experience, defense industrial base, countering hybrid threats, geographic location.
▶ 1:18:55Sen. Merkley: Given that, how do you assess the impact of the trump administration's stated opposition to ukraine's nato membership?
▶ 1:19:04Dr. Polyakova: Thank you for that question. It is not just the united states that opposes nato membership right now. There is no consensus among allies and we saw that in the previous administration as well that there was no consensus among allies. That being said, I think while there is an active hot war in ukraine, it is difficult to see how ukraine could become a nato member but it is a goal we should keep open in the future.
▶ 1:19:31Dr. Polyakova: The reason is not because it is ukraine and it is our duty, some sort of moral obligation. It is because ukraine is a huge asset. It is the largest country in europe. Giving ukraine to the russians would be a huge hit to our military capabilities. They would absorb all of the innovative military capabilities they have created over the past three years. It is an asset for our own military versus a vulnerability.
▶ 1:20:01Dr. Polyakova: But it is a long-term path, not an immediate path.
▶ 1:20:04Sen. Merkley: There is even a provision in nato protocols that we cannot bring a member nation in that is currently occupied, to prevent immediate conflict. Brief reflections on how quickly trump a sickly stated support for russia's position, that ukraine never become part of nato.
▶ 1:20:33Dr. Polyakova: I hope the president will change that position. He has said different things. The message could be more clear. I think the ultimate desire by the administration and the president to reach some sort of lasting peaceful negotiated solution between russia and ukraine has the right instinct. The reality is that russia plays the unstructured nest obstacle and the ukrainians have come -- obstructionist obstacle and the ukrainians have come to the table.
▶ 1:21:04Dr. Polyakova: Taking things off the table before we are even at the table is the problem.
▶ 1:21:08Sen. Merkley: I couldn't agree more. Let me turn to another piece of the puzzle. The U.S. provides a nuclear umbrella for nato, but trump's statements that imply that our commitment to nato is perhaps not rocksolid, how does that affect the role of our nuclear umbrella and the possibility of other nations starting to consider if they need a different strategy?
▶ 1:21:38Dr. Polyakova: There is no substitute for the U.S. nuclear umbrella in europe. The european allies in nato that have nuclear capabilities are far below and it would take many years and a complete rewriting of nato and the founding treating -- treaty to have some kind of different arrangement for allies to provide for their own nuclear capability and defense umbrella. That is not really an option.
▶ 1:22:08Dr. Polyakova: When I speak to european allies, they are not concerned that the united states will recommit to article five. What they are more concerned about is a quick draw down of the U.S. presence in europe which we believe is going to happen at some point. They understand it is coming. They want it to be thoughtful and strategic and they are willing to step in to take more responsibility.
▶ 1:22:32Dr. Polyakova: I will say I don't see as much concern right now, that the united states will not support nato and recommit to article five.
▶ 1:22:44Sen. Merkley: Think you very much. And Mr. rough, I appreciated your testimony. I wanted to ask about the implications for nato, china's support for russia's war in ukraine and how might beijing be drawing lessons from the west's response as it considers its ambitions toward taiwan.
▶ 1:23:07Mr. Rough: China's support to the russian war effort has been essential. It is a dubious proposition that russia can maintain the high operational tempo it has without chinese provision, dual use technologies, in particular the overwhelming support of microelectronics, semiconductors and machine tools that have been very important to the russians. As to what lessons the chinese are drawing, I'm sure they are scrubbing down the war effort very carefully.
▶ 1:23:37Mr. Rough: We have stood up so-called jtech, a nato outfit in poland to learn lessons from the war in ukraine but I will say I worry that russia and ukraine can iterate at a much faster rate than the united states observing this war from a distance and even from the forward post in poland, that is something the alliance needs to address. Are we able to keep pace with the evolutions in drone technologies?
▶ 1:24:05Mr. Rough: The ukrainians are more than eager to share these lessons in a way, thanking us for our generosity and support that will require industry and even a presence in ukraine closer to the action to understand what is happening but there is no doubt that the chinese are watching this very closely and we've already seen xi jingping scrub down his own armed forces to push out corruption, doubtlessly aware of the corruption that plagued the russian forces Sen.
▶ 1:24:35Merkley: 's. -- russian forces.
▶ 1:24:40Sen. Merkley: Thank you very much.
▶ 1:24:41Ranking Member Shaheen: Senator van hollen.
▶ 1:24:43Sen. Van Hollen: Thank you very much for your testimony.
▶ 1:24:47Ranking Member Shaheen: I'm sorry. Senator coons is next. I know he has to get back to another hearing so I apologize.
▶ 1:24:55Sen. Coons: Thank you for your patience. I am the ranking member on the defense appropriations subcommittee we are having the army budget hearing right now. The discussion you were just having about innovation, agility and induration is a big -- and iteration is a big piece of that. Mr. rough, you agree that russia is an adversary of the united states and that the ukrainians have inflicted serious damage?
▶ 1:25:21Mr. Rough: Yes.
▶ 1:25:25Sen. Coons: My understanding is ukraine has imposed enormous costs on one of our principal global adversaries. More than one million casualties, half of the black sea fleet, thousands of russian tanks destroyed, without a single american soldier directly in harm's way for less than 1% of our federal budget. I continue to be all in in terms of our support for ukraine against russian aggression, as are many of my colleagues both republican and democrat.
▶ 1:25:55Sen. Coons: It is a worthy investment in our national security. You raised a critical question. How quickly can we learn from the experiences of the ukrainians and implement it not just in the U.S. armed forces but amongst our allied forces? What recommendations do you have about how we can strengthen and increase the speed of that iteration?
▶ 1:26:19Mr. Rough: There are a few lessons. The first is to get defense punch. You need strong topline numbers and even the fy 26 requisition is around 3%, a long ways away from what senator wicker recommended last year, or what the allies will describe next week as a new defense investment pledge. Within that it is important to focus on procurement numbers. The whales pledge had a scheme where it was two percent of gdp for defense by 20% of that went to procurement.
▶ 1:26:50Mr. Rough: That is worth keeping in mind. What some of my colleagues at hudson have described is the value of looking to the commercial base to find solutions for defense problems. This helps reduce costs and also accelerates the speed of adaptation. Modularity is also something worth studying. Rather than expensive bespoke systems. The economies of scale that we can achieve through our joint procurement project is something we should look at.
▶ 1:27:19Mr. Rough: Europe has some 12 tanks because it is a mosaic of nations, more than a continent acting in their defense sphere together and joint procurement would be a worthy thing. The last point I would make that my colleague wrote in the pages of the wall street journal recently is maybe looking at cost plus contracting as a way to get more bang for our buck.
▶ 1:27:43Mr. Rough: All of that along with studying the ukrainian war effort, which they are eager to show us would improve our performance on the battlefield.
▶ 1:27:49Sen. Coons: Dr. polyakova, the same question to you if I might. His reference to 12 different tanks on the continent. The ukrainians have done a masterful job of managing to service and keep in the fight, a remarkable array of armored personnel carriers and tanks and artillery pieces. Dozens of different systems, despite not having the oem and long supply chain we insist is necessary.
▶ 1:28:21Sen. Coons: Not just drones but across all of these platforms. What lessons are there for us about our procurement and what lessons are there for nato? We are about to go to nato -- a nato summit where europe is pledging $1 trillion plus for defense spending.
▶ 1:28:38Dr. Polyakova: Thank you for that question. You point to a core issue from my written testimony as well. The ukrainians are operating 400 different kinds of systems from different places. Some domestically produced, many from foreign partners and that has been incredible to see. The main lesson for us is we have to simplify our military sales.
▶ 1:29:08Dr. Polyakova: If we want to take advantage of what is happening in ukraine, a big question our european partners have is how do we actually do joint ventures and codevelopment and coproduction? It is incredible he difficult. -- it is incredibly difficult. Nato needs to push forward in joint procurement which is part of the answer to your question about how do you translate money into capabilities.
▶ 1:29:34Dr. Polyakova: Money is not everything, it has to be spent in the right ways and nato is the right framework to coordinate those efforts to make sure there is complementary, not duplication.
▶ 1:29:47Sen. Coons: I traveled to the philippines and taiwan with senator ricketts. The upcoming nato summit does not include end of pacific partners, I think a specific -- a significant mistake. How do you think the lessons of ukraine should be applied our indo pacific allies and partners?
▶ 1:30:05Dr. Polyakova: A fantastic question. There is already a technology export vector taking place directly from ukraine capabilities being learned on the ground by companies, the private sector, directly to taiwan. My concern is the united states, we are missing out. I would point to ukraine's recent operation that you saw, the spiderweb operation.
▶ 1:30:35Dr. Polyakova: We cannot defend against that operation. I'm not privy to that information, I don't know if we can carry out that kind of operation in a country like russia. That is all a huge opportunity for us to learn, and to your point about the european theater and the indo pacific theater being and expert to be linked is the key point -- inexplicably linked is the key point for taiwan.
▶ 1:31:02Dr. Polyakova: They have tested the battlefield and they are able to innovate in a super rapid fashion and they are buying those keep abilities as we speak. We should too but we have to do a lot of work to simplify that.
▶ 1:31:14Ranking Member Shaheen: Thank you. Now senator van hollen.
▶ 1:31:17Sen. Van Hollen: Thank you and I thank both of you for your testimony. I'm going to start with you, Dr. polyakova. It is good to see you again. I want to talk about what message we should aim to have come out of the nato summit with respect to ukraine.
▶ 1:31:37Sen. Van Hollen: Because the message is that the trump administration has been sending for months in my view have undermined our position, our collective U.S.-nato position in support of ukraine. We don't have to revisit the spectacle in the oval office with president zelenskyy and all those other issues. But more recently, we have seen secretary rubio acknowledge that ukraine's need for air defense is significant.
▶ 1:32:05Sen. Van Hollen: But to my knowledge there is no plan, to get ukraine more air defense. We also saw secretary hegseth skip the ukraine defense contact group meeting in brussels. The first time a U.S. secretary of defense has done so since russia's invasion began in 2022. Secretary hegseth also confirmed that the proposed 2026 budget request includes cuts to funding for purchases to ukraine.
▶ 1:32:36Sen. Van Hollen: As you mentioned with respect to the possibility of ukraine's future in nato. Taking that off the table unilaterally is a pretty bad negotiating position.
▶ 1:32:54Sen. Van Hollen: Could you just describe what message you think needs to come out of nato summit with respect to ukraine, what kind of united message and what you think the prospects are for that given what president trump's position has been?
▶ 1:33:09Dr. Polyakova: We understand the summit has a much shorter agenda than usual. That the communiqué is also going to be quite short and straightforward, focusing on nato's core cap abilities and not talking so much about our other partners and allies. I would like to see a clear message from the administration that we will stand with ukraine against the russian aggressor. That is what I would like to see.
▶ 1:33:35Dr. Polyakova: That being said, I think we can probably get to a communiqué that does mention that russia is the aggressor and that ukraine is the victim and also a partner to the united states. That is what I'm hoping for. Whether it'll be viable will depend on the conversations between leaders on the ground. One specific thing I think this nato summit could achieve which is not specific to nato but to ukraine is to allow the U.S. sales of U.S.
▶ 1:34:03Dr. Polyakova: Military equipment to europeans who can then transfer them to ukraine as they see fit. We have not provided that yet, that third-party transfer but that is something that is very much within reach and something we can do and that would send a clear message that even though we may not be debating a new supplemental in this house, that the united states will still allow european allies to buy american and then transfer those keep abilities to ukraine.
▶ 1:34:30Sen. Van Hollen: I appreciate that. Let me ask you both, coordinating both with our nato partners but more broadly with eu partners, in terms of our approach to china. During the first trump administration, we worked on a bipartisan basis to try to encourage our colleagues to de-risk their economies from china, especially in critical strategic supply chains.
▶ 1:35:01Sen. Van Hollen: There seems to be more confusion this time around, in the trump administration. I would note that on june 10, our ambassador to nato posted on twitter, what happens in the indo pacific matters for transatlantic security. That is why nato works with partners globally,". The deputy secretary of state then posted and then deleted a reply.
▶ 1:35:29Sen. Van Hollen: His tweet was, he obviously didn't get the memo of our deputy's committee meeting on this very issue. Nato is still a solution in search of a problem. What is your view on these different conflicting positions we seem to see within the trump administration, and how is that hurting our ability to work with european allies?
▶ 1:35:53Sen. Van Hollen: And finally, when we are putting these large tariffs across the board on many of our eu partners, and the question is how can we be asking them to de-risk from china when we are putting their economies at such risk?
▶ 1:36:11Dr. Polyakova: Thank you for your questions. I think the messaging as you say has not been clear to european allies on a variety of issues including tariffs, including commitments to ukraine and policy on china. I think it is early in the administration and we can allow them a little more time to figure out what those positions are.
▶ 1:36:32Dr. Polyakova: That said, it is producing a great deal of stress and anxiety among allies to not have a clear sense of where the administration is going to take its policies. I would like to see very clear messaging. I agree with other members who said if we didn't have nato we would have to invent it. So nato does have a clear purpose, to deter russia in europe and to allow for lessons to be learned from the indo pacific.
▶ 1:37:00Dr. Polyakova: Nato's core function is europe but there are lessons we've been discussing for the indo pacific environment and to provide some key technologies and capabilities as well. That is what I would like to see out of the summit, coherence and a common threat assessment of what nato is doing and why we have it.
▶ 1:37:19Sen. Van Hollen: , Mr. rough if you would like.
▶ 1:37:24Mr. Rough: What really matters is the hard work and daily grind of cleaning chinese infrastructure out of the critical areas in europe. I think the chinese-controlled companies have stakes in 33 important terminals across urine of -- across europe. -- is considering selling 14 of them to a U.S.-swiss-italian consortium.
▶ 1:37:54Mr. Rough: All of that just needs to be steadily worked on because it does have carryover effects for military mobility and american troop movements in europe. I would also add telecoms to that list. None of the big eu companies are specter to have 5g networks entirely free of chinese products by 2028. We need to accelerate that timeline. That might go below the radar of the grand political declarations at a place like the hague but I think it is essential.
▶ 1:38:20Sen. Van Hollen: Thank you both.
▶ 1:38:22Ranking Member Shaheen: Thank you senator van hollen. Senator booker.
▶ 1:38:26Sen. Booker: Thank you. I want to say that you had a statement that I want to explore. You said russia would be a sitting duck without the united states. It makes me concerned because you hear the president publicly flirting with indulging russia's maximalist aims, and it seems to make me alarmed.
▶ 1:38:54Sen. Booker: Last week a russian deputy foreign minister said ukraine won't end until nato reduces or limit -- or eliminates its military footprint in eastern europe across the eastern flank. This includes baltic states, the czech republic, slovakia, hungary and someone. -- and so on. Concerns for the U.S. alliance and partnership, especially under the trump administration had many people I talked with very alarmed.
▶ 1:39:25Sen. Booker: I'm wondering, if you can expand on this line of thought, and maybe impress upon this committee the urgency, the dire urgency of this moment we have right now before us with russia and a president whose posture at times worries me.
▶ 1:39:42Dr. Polyakova: Thank you senator booker. It is an urgent moment as I out loaned -- as I outlined in my opening testimony. A confrontation with nato seems increasingly more inevitable unless the united states continues to take up a leadership position, nato continues to deter and defend in the european theater. Russia has in fact been the main obstacle to peace in ukraine.
▶ 1:40:11Dr. Polyakova: President pruden -- president putin's positions show us a basic truth that every set with russia does not get you anywhere. This administration has been learning that, like other administrations have tried to reset with russia. I hope that they will pivot to a different strategy that means we need to plot -- need to apply pressure to the russians to come to the table.
▶ 1:40:37Dr. Polyakova: Economic pressure, military pressure and pressure on partners and allies that have been feeding putin's war machine. I hope that is the thinking that the administration is going to pursue because obviously the incentive model has not worked to produce results.
▶ 1:40:51Sen. Booker: My staff corrected me for the record, that you said europe would be a sitting duck. Your view of the trump administration is that they understand the under -- the urgency for the american engagement and involvement. Is that what you are implying?
▶ 1:41:11Dr. Polyakova: To be frank, I don't know if that is the coherent view of everyone in the U.S. government and the executive branch. I do think there are some understand the threat.
▶ 1:41:22Sen. Booker: Very diplomatic of you. I want to shift in my remaining time and talk about the arctic strategy. I was surprised on my visit last year to iceland to understand the extent of the urgencies and the need for america to have a greater arctic strategy and pay close attention to what is happening in the arctic right now. The shortest flight path between russia and the united states is through the arctic.
▶ 1:41:52Sen. Booker: The combination of melting ice caps, critical natural resources being removed and fought over. Russia's military buildup and increasing cooperation between russia and china in the arctic have a lot of potential to increase tensions and expose a lot of the vulnerabilities in that area. Sweden and finland joining nato provides a great boost to the collective defense in the high north. Now seven of the eight arctic states are part of nato which is an incredible stride.
▶ 1:42:23Sen. Booker: Russia's ghost fleets to seven sabotage undersea cables and critical infrastructure, protecting strategic ports. I think we need to expand nato's capabilities. I was hearing reports when I was there that the chinese have been doing fishy things in that area, pun intended.
▶ 1:42:47Sen. Booker: I'm wondering from both of you, what new and emerging capabilities should nato be considering and it comes to protecting allied interests in the arctic. Are there gaps in nato's current approach to challenges in the arctic?
▶ 1:42:59Dr. Polyakova: I was hoping someone would ask about the arctic. I hope you might come with us again to the arctic this august. That being said, you are right that we have a huge opportunity with the kind of strategic depth that sweden and norway joining the alliance provides us. We have a landmass connecting the arctic sea and the baltic sea and we haven't quite understood what opportunity there is, to deter and defend.
▶ 1:43:28Dr. Polyakova: We have significant challenges, logistics operations and communications well-suited for that harsh environment that we have not bought through. There is a huge amount more that we can do to ensure we have a defense and security hub that is closely coordinated with the nordic baltic grouping, with the nato framework to position ourselves as the arctic nation that the united states is and china is not.
▶ 1:43:56Dr. Polyakova: The chinese for year have seen significant interests emerge for themselves in the arctic and have cleared themselves a near arctic nation which of course they are not. They are doing a lot through proxies and russia to try and plant a flag, try to influence and undermine strategic cohesion in the arctic when we have the upper hand because now the seven of the eight arctic states are nato members and we should take advantage of that.
▶ 1:44:22Dr. Polyakova: I think exercise is number one, logistics and comms is number two and then we can about positioning additional resources in the region.
▶ 1:44:31Sen. Booker: Mr. rough?
▶ 1:44:33Mr. Rough: This is a real opportunity. At the madrid summit in 2022, the arctic was mentioned in the first time -- for the first time. The nato communiqué -- the strategic compass, policy document, the last go around the alliance could not agree because the norwegians wanted more nato and the canadians wanted to keep it a national issue.
▶ 1:45:00Mr. Rough: We have seen the nordic powers work more with one another, a real opportunity, and I would say that the arctic council is essentially dead but the arctic seven are all in nato and we have abilities. The finns are world leaders in icebreaker design.
▶ 1:45:24Mr. Rough: They have all of the power and skills in arctic operations and I would like to cs cooperate more on russian antisubmarine capabilities and exercises. The g.I. U.k. Gap is essential here, where if russia tries to break out to the atlantic seaboard, and the chief of staff of the british armed forces a few years ago right before the outbreak of the full-scale invasion of ukraine, described the phenomenal increase in russian submarine activity in
▶ 1:45:54Mr. Rough: April. These are areas right for cooperation and I would like to see us work more with the arctic seven within the nato alliance and probably leave the arctic council.
▶ 1:46:09Sen. Booker: Thank you very much. That urgency I would love -- is something I would love the committee to focus more on. I've never seen a witness throw my staff under the bus. They didn't put in my briefing document about the arctic, the calmer treaty of the 16th century. I'm going to be on my staff, very upset about that lack in my briefing.
▶ 1:46:32Ranking Member Shaheen: What I'm struck by is the similarity in approach that both of our witnesses have today, which I think speaks to the importance of nato and how we should respond. I want to do another round before we close, because I want to start, Mr.
▶ 1:46:53Ranking Member Shaheen: Rough with asking you about the idea of a finance ministerial for nato because I think that is a really interesting idea as we think about how we really shut down our adversaries. It is not just militarily. It also needs to be economically.
▶ 1:47:12Ranking Member Shaheen: One of the huge loopholes that exists is the ability for cryptocurrencies to pay for what our adversaries are doing, but also their ability to put their laundered money into western financial systems.
▶ 1:47:33Ranking Member Shaheen: Talk a little bit about how you see that ministerial being structured and the extent to which nato has to this point, discussed this idea and what the challenges are.
▶ 1:47:46Mr. Rough: -- I don't know we have to have an annual nato summit stop there were three summits all through the cold war. They are enormously time-consuming, expensive, weaving the president to the hague alone is a lot of work and at times it can be counterproductive as bureaucrats looking for low hanging fruit to put into a communiqué.
▶ 1:48:16Mr. Rough: Letting the defense ministers run nato as they have in the past and supplementing it with a finance ministerial only because defense ministers cannot make promises on budget the way finance ministers can. I was heartened to see in the press conference last week or after the defense ministerial said he would have annual plans as the allies ascend the steps to 5%, the -- to keep them to it because it is easy to make a 10 year horizon plan when your
▶ 1:48:46Mr. Rough: Successor has to find a way to pay for it. This is just a way to put brass tacks behind the pronouncements that are made, to force allies to concentrate on how they will make their way there, and I would welcome the inclusion of some of these other components, like the implications of cryptocurrency, how tradition -- traditional banking systems play when it comes to nato security and defense and how we should think about all of this.
▶ 1:49:15Mr. Rough: That is a worthy area of investigation. I should mention --
▶ 1:49:24Ranking Member Shaheen: We will give him attribution. Dr. polyakova, do you want to add to that as you think about this potential?
▶ 1:49:31Dr. Polyakova: Many european nato member states including germany, traditionally the defense ministry has played a relatively minor role and it has been the finance ministry that has led the way and has had a powerful head. Nobody wanted the defense ministry in german politics for years. Now is the moment to rebalance that.
▶ 1:49:53Dr. Polyakova: This is a great idea that I'm hearing for the first time that it makes sense for europeans in particular because the money is going to have to come from somewhere. Who controls those pursestrings? Parliaments, but not really. It is the finance ministers.
▶ 1:50:11Ranking Member Shaheen: To what extent has this been discussed? Are you aware of any conversations about this or any particular nato member pushing this idea?
▶ 1:50:18Mr. Rough: I don't believe so. Interesting. I think it is a great idea. I think we should think about how we push it. Dr. polyakova, you and Mr. rough both mentioned the hybrid threat from russia to our nato allies. Can you expand on that a little bit?
▶ 1:50:47Mr. Rough: One of the things that has struck me, it is an area that we have -- particularly around the information space where we have not at all either been able or willing to match what our adversaries are doing. We've heard that that applies not just to the united states but other nato countries. Can I ask both of you to speak to that and to what more we ought to be thinking about?
▶ 1:51:17Dr. Polyakova: Thank you for that question. I will preface my answer to your question on the information influence operations to say that what russia is currently carrying out against our european allies in nato, we have not seen since the cold war. It is not even hybrid or nonconventional. This is warfare.
▶ 1:51:41Dr. Polyakova: We call it shadow warfare because it does include assassinations, it does include well-documented documented attacks on critical infrastructure that is costing lives and producing mass civilian. This is very new, that we have not grasped as an alliance.
▶ 1:52:01Dr. Polyakova: Increasingly information influence operations, even less needed I would say because the russians have unleashed their intelligence agencies to wreak havoc across europe in all of these various ways. That said, they haven't gone anywhere. The use of propaganda tools has been around for all of humanity and was effectively used by the russians.
▶ 1:52:24Dr. Polyakova: The unfortunate situation we find ourselves in now, I think with some of the cuts that the administration has made, and also that congress has not for example -- some of the cuts to -- are diminishing our ability to compete in the information space. Just -- not just in europe but around the world and I hope that is something we reconsider in the near term.
▶ 1:52:49Ranking Member Shaheen: I certainly agree. Mr. rough?
▶ 1:52:52Mr. Rough: Maybe on the baltic sea since it is in the news, this is a massive body of water, 50% of global traffic transit sits. It is very shallow which means it is inexpensive for part of russia's shadow fleet to drag a rusty anchor across the seabed to destroy data transmission or communications or even power cables.
▶ 1:53:14Mr. Rough: A third of norway, a third of the eu's natural gas is imported via undersea pipelines from norway which could prove damaging to the economy. To repair these data cables or transmission lines is rather expensive. Somewhere between $200 billion. There were only 60, 80 repair vehicles in the world. All of this is a problem that means when it comes to the balance of threat, the russians know the political economy works in their direction.
▶ 1:53:44Mr. Rough: It is inexpensive for them and expensive for us. It does mean that we should consider countermeasures to try and put the russians on the back heal. Maybe it is worthwhile considering riots going off in the moscow metro, to send a message to vladimir putin, he cannot act with impunity and expect us to play defense all the time. That's not an effective way for us to go forward.
▶ 1:54:05Ranking Member Shaheen: I agree. I thought it was very interesting. I think it was finland, last time the undersea cables were interrupted in the baltic sea, they took the ship and all of its crew into port and arrested them basically and said we are not going to let you get away with it. We've got to get much tougher on those kinds of measures. Thank you both very much for being here. We appreciate your testimony, and the ideas you have shared with us.
▶ 1:54:39Ranking Member Shaheen: I don't think we will have any questions for the record but if we do, we would ask that you might be willing to respond to those as quickly as possible. With that, this hearing is adjourned, thank you.