▶ 0:31:06>> we will have a business meeting and then we have two a hearing. We will start with the business meeting, we have four to nominees before us. According to the stern direction, we have to pick one at a time. We will start with brent christiansen of virginia to the ambassador of people's republic of bangladesh. Is there debate? Call the roll.
▶ 0:31:40[taking votes]
▶ 0:32:16>> clerk will report. The motion has passed. We will consider benjamin leon junior to be ambassador to the kingdom of spain. Is there a motion? Is there a second? Is there debate? No debate. Clerk will call the roll.
▶ 0:32:41[taking role] six [taking role]
▶ 0:33:17Clerk will report. Motion has passed. Brent bozell iii to be the ambassador to the republic of south africa. >> I have serious concerns about his ability to serve as ambassador of south africa.
▶ 0:33:47He refused to voice an opinion on race-based policy and continues to perpetuate the false narrative of white farmer genocide in south africa, which is not happening. He is woefully underprepared to be one of the largest partners on the continent. I think most of my colleagues on the democratic side will do the same.
▶ 0:34:16Sen. Risch: Thank you. >> I wanted to convey my opposition. He continues to perpetuate a false story that there is a false genocide. I recently spoke to several dozen leaders who have sent a letter to us saying this is being done in their name but this is provide slowly -- profoundly false. They are not specifically targeted at the right minority.
▶ 0:34:48Sen. Risch: For president trump to focus our refugee mission solely on this one country is both historical and unconstructive. >> thank you. You are hearing every democrat raise objection over this nominee because of the underlying policy, the idea we are about to impose a racial profile on a refugee program is abhorrent.
▶ 0:35:18Sen. Risch: This committee should do oversight over that decision before it creates a permanent stain on america's reputation in the world. I would know in follow-up questions I asked a simple question which was to opine on whether he would oppose or support the imposition of restrictions on black american citizens to vote.
▶ 0:35:45Sen. Risch: His answer was his personal opinions were not relevant to his nomination. You have already robbed from democrats the ability to have an open debate on the floor now nominees are coming here and basically saying they are immune from discussing their personal views on pretty serious matters.
▶ 0:36:10Sen. Risch: I hope this is not the future of our nominees willingness to share with us their views. I would reiterate my hope that we have a full committee vote very concerning to many of us.
▶ 0:36:26Chair Risch: Is there a further debate on the president's nomination? There being none. The clerk will call the roll. [taking role]
▶ 0:37:11Chair Risch: >> motion has passed. He will be referred to the floor. Finally we have the nomination of Ms. namdarkhan from the state of texas to be assistant secretary of affairs. Let's have a motion. Now is there discussion? Thank you.
▶ 0:37:43Chair Risch: >>>> she is going to take on perhaps what is the most important public facing role. Her role deals with the safety and security of americans overseas as the head of the counselor affairs bureau. It requires regular engagement to ensure our constituents are well served. In new hampshire we have a visa and a passport center. We have a number of employees very engaged in these responsibilities.
▶ 0:38:13Chair Risch: I have some reservations because of her tenure in the first trump administration where she left her job because she was about to be disciplined. However, she indicated in her hearing a commitment to make sure this bureau runs well.
▶ 0:38:35Chair Risch: I will hold her to that, I will vote for her and hold her to the commitment she has made to engage with this committee with members of the senate and congress to make sure this bureau is responsive to our constituents.
▶ 0:38:50Chair Risch: Thank you senator shaheen. She did make those commitments in the hearing. I feel strongly this is a really important position for our constituents for us as we deal with our constituents. I'm sure she knows we will be holding her to that standard. No doubt about that. There being no further debate the clerk will call role.
▶ 0:39:19Chair Risch: [taking role] click
▶ 0:39:52Chair Risch: Report. The motion has passed, the nomination will be referred to the floor.
▶ 0:40:02Sen. Shaheen: . I have a statement for the record I would like to introduce on the vote. >> that will be published in the record.
▶ 0:40:17Chair Risch: With that we will move to the hearing we have scheduled for this morning. We are going to talk about this morning reviewing implementation of the taiwan enhanced resilience act and future opportunities for U.S.-taiwan
▶ 0:40:48Chair Risch: Cooperation. I will make a few opening remarks. I will yield to the to do likewise and we have three very good witnesses here today to talk about this. I will introduce them, give them a few minutes to speak and that we will open it up for a round of questions. With that, thank you to our witnesses for being with us here today.
▶ 0:41:20Chair Risch: The state has critical implications for the united states and the world. The chinese communist party has never controlled taiwan. For decades they have waged psychological war carrying out endless propaganda to weaken its resilience and repeatedly undermined the taiwan straight. China's rocket forces carried out increasingly sophisticated military exercise simulating a blockade and quarantine for taiwan.
▶ 0:41:51Chair Risch: China is reducing its false claims to support its position on taiwan. We all know asserting chinese control over taiwan is a legacy. His population is aging. His economy is faltering. China needs a victory and he has set his sights on taiwan, this is deeply troubling. They are a key U.S.
▶ 0:42:20Chair Risch: Partner in the endo pacific. It is a rapidly growing source of investment in the united states. My home state knows well taiwan's importance. It is the largest international trading partner. We celebrated 40 years of a relationship with idaho and taiwan.
▶ 0:42:45Chair Risch: Taiwan is deeply integrated in the global economy taiwan plays a key role in that ambition and will remain an important partner for producing ships that control everything from missiles to washing machines. China is the greatest long-term threat for american interest.
▶ 0:43:10Chair Risch: If we allow this to go unchecked this will have ripple effects and seriously hurt our ability to compete with china. Look no further than the dispute they are having now. We have recently seen china weaponize it's die -- critical supply chains.
▶ 0:43:36Chair Risch: It has attempted to hold american industries hostage amid the trade talks going on with the united states. Taiwan may be at the forefront but it won't be the last stop. That is what we all need to work to counter china's aggression in taiwan. With that I will recognize the ranking member.
▶ 0:44:02Sen. Shaheen: Over many decades across many administrations republican and democratic a life , the U.S. has had a strong and enduring relationship with taiwan. Today as we meet we have a worrying backdrop. The trump administration has been to willing to that undermines our allies.
▶ 0:44:30Sen. Shaheen: Taiwan is a partner whose technological and economic cooperation is essential to american life. This comes at a moment and that really -- a critical moment in that relationship. Taiwan is one of the epicenters of the specialized semiconductor industry. To builds the advanced chips the power ai, defense technologies and clean energy systems. However, taiwan is more than a semiconductor superpower.
▶ 0:44:55Sen. Shaheen: One study by the rhodium group found that a chinese blockade of taiwan could lead to eight to trillion dollar global disruption of supply chains -- a to trillion dollar global disruption of supply chains. The damage from an invasion could reach $10 trillion, with a t, dollars. Roughly 10% of global gdp.
▶ 0:45:28Sen. Shaheen: There is strong bipartisan support in this committee and throughout congress and across the national security community for taiwan. We recently passed out of committee legislation on taiwan from senator and myself -- senator risch and myself to deter chinese aggression. We need to do more. We need to strengthen economic tools to deny beijing the revenue and technology to wage war.
▶ 0:45:55Sen. Shaheen: We need to do more in the information space where beijing put particular focus. We also need to support american allies from closer defense coordination with japan and south korea to demonstrating a united front with our allies on sanctions and export controls. As dartmouth's stephen brooks notes, -- I have to quote the dartmouth professor because it is in new hampshire. Just pointing that out.
▶ 0:46:25Sen. Shaheen: "coordinated sanctions with our allies give us real leverage, credible economic pressure that strengthens deterrence in the taiwan straight. When we act alone chasing bilateral trade deals we sidelined that leverage and that weakness does not go unnoticed. Xi jinping is watching how the united states responds to russian aggression in ukraine.
▶ 0:46:47Sen. Shaheen: Nothing could be a better deterrent to an invasion of taiwan then defeating putin in ukraine and showing the role that america stands by our democratic allies. Deterrence depends on the choices we make here at home. Delaying our sales -- farm sales, denying the president of taiwan the ability to transit through the united states, or imposing tariffs against taiwan just does not help.
▶ 0:47:16Sen. Shaheen: As the sfr reports, beijing is seizing the advantage as the united states undermines its own tools to compete. With president trump planning to visit beijing next year in negotiations heating up between china and the U.S., I hope today's hearing will help clarify what this moment demands from us at home. And what it will take to safeguard the united states -taiwan relationship in the months ahead. I look forward to hearing from our witnesses.
▶ 0:47:47Sen. Shaheen: Thank you again for being here.
▶ 0:47:48Chair Risch: Thank you, senator. We have three distinguished witnesses today. Dr. lauren dickey, expert on taiwan defense issues. She served as the senior advisor and acting director for taiwan policy and the department of defense and is a research scientist at the center for naval analysis focused on chinese military issues.
▶ 0:48:12Chair Risch: Miss bonnie glaser, from the german marshall fund indo-pacific program. She has published widely in academic and policy journals and consulted for various U.S. agencies, including the department of defense and state. Dr. rush doshi is the star senior fellow for asian studies and director for the china strategy initiative at the council on foreign relations.
▶ 0:48:42Chair Risch: He's also an assistant professor in security studies at georgetown's school of foreign service. We will start with you, Dr. dickey. The floor is yours.
▶ 0:48:54Dr. Dickey: Good morning. Thank you for the opportunity to testify on the implementation of the taiwan enhanced resilience act in future opportunities for U.S.-taiwan cooperation. For 45 years, support for peace and stability in the taiwan straight has been one of america's most consistent bipartisan commitments. The reason is straightforward. Hi one's security essential to U.S. national security.
▶ 0:49:21Dr. Dickey: It affects our economic strength, military readiness and our strategic credibility in the indo-pacific. Taiwan is a thriving democracy under pressure, a critical link in the indo-pacific security architecture in the center of the world's most advanced semiconductor supply chain. A crisis in the taiwan strait would directly harm U.S. economic security, disrupt defense production and raise costs for american families. Congress recognized the state senate passed tera.
▶ 0:49:53Dr. Dickey: It provides the most comprehensive authorities we have ever had to strengthen deterrence. The effectiveness of these authorities now depends on their urgent and full implementation, along with adjustments to modernize further how the U.S. operationalizes its taiwan policy. Four key areas stand out. Presidential drawdown authority is not delivered capability. Concerns about backfill initially slowed execution.
▶ 0:50:23Dr. Dickey: Today taiwan still lacks sufficient numbers of asymmetric systems and that shortfall increases risk to U.S. forces should deterrence fail. Second, although tera authorized original contingency stockpile, to the best of my knowledge dod has yet to fully realize this authority. No facilities have been built and no material has been forward positioned. Without pre-positioned munitions and sustainment, united states and our allies would begin any crisis from a position of delay.
▶ 0:50:54Dr. Dickey: Third, foreign military sales to taiwan remain to slope. Industrial bottlenecks and bureaucratic complexity routinely push critical programs behind schedule or over budget. These delays weaken confidence in U.S. commitments, complicate taiwan defense planning, and increase the risk to U.S. forces in a crisis. Fourth, state authorities that were delegated under the taiwan relations act in an executive order from president bill clinton have been unchanged since 1996.
▶ 0:51:23Dr. Dickey: In other words, they no longer match the tempo of today's relationship and slow down other bureaus and agencies from engaging with taiwan. The american institute in taiwan which manages one of the most consequential portfolios of any U.S. mission faces staffing and facility constraints that limit its ability to support an ever expanding security agenda. To address these challenges I will offer six recommendations that are detailed further in my written testimony.
▶ 0:51:52Dr. Dickey: First, fully resource all taiwan relevant security assistance authorities and link them to a multiyear dod planned with quarterly reporting on the status of how each authority is being used. Second, accelerate arm sales deliveries by establishing a fast lane list of preapproved platforms and munitions that are eligible for expedited export, tech release and contracting processes. Authorize and appropriate the funds and authorities necessary for the U.S.
▶ 0:52:17Dr. Dickey: In partnership with taiwan to construct and fill a regional contingency stockpile. Fourth, modernize state outdated oversight policies and require annual reporting on taiwan related engagements at the department estate disproves -- that the department of state disapproves. Strengthen strengthe staffing facilities biting -- and immediate appointment of a washington-based ait person.
▶ 0:52:48Dr. Dickey: Lastly, even congressional engagement with taiwan's legislative to sustain budget growth and critical policy reforms. Deterrence in the taiwan straight is still achievable but it requires even greater urgency and the full use and expansion of the authorities congress has already put in place. Ultimately and plummeting tera affects american workers and american lives, but more can and must be done. Thank you and I look forward to your questions.
▶ 0:53:18Chair Risch: Ms. glaser, the floor is yours.
▶ 0:53:23Ms. Glaser: Chairman risch, thank you for the opportunity to testify at today's hearing. It is crucial americans have a deeper appreciation of why taiwan is important to the united states. Robust public support for taiwan can contribute to strengthening deterrence and help make defense of taiwan if deterrence fails. Taiwan significance to the united states and the free world is threefold. As george w.
▶ 0:53:52Ms. Glaser: Bush stated during his presidency, taiwan is a beacon of democracy. To asia and the chinese communist party's political system. Taiwan manufactures over 60% of the world's total output of all semi conductors and more than 90% of most advanced chips, which are essential for virtually all electronic devices including computers, cars, smartphones and military equipment.
▶ 0:54:21Ms. Glaser: Failure to support taiwan in the face of prc coercion and aggression could prompt our allies to doubt the credibility and reliability of the united states defense commitments to them. This is true for the japanese who worry that p.r.c. Occupation of taiwan would put tokyo's sea lanes at risk and enter self-defense forces from defending the country's southwest islands. The threat of a full-scale p.r.c.
▶ 0:54:46Ms. Glaser: Invasion or blockade or other actions are real but not imminent or inevitable. Beijing's preferred strategy is to coerce taiwan to agree to unification without resorting to over kinetic work here -- warfare. They want to use gray zone tactics to induce despair, erode confidence and continued U.S. support for taiwan's security and make unification appear as the best choice.
▶ 0:55:17Ms. Glaser: P.r.c. Experts and officials view washington is currently prioritizing relations with beijing over taipei and exercising caution in policy toward taiwan so as not to undermine prospects for reaching deals with the p.r.c.. The p.r.c.'s calculus is shaped heavily by its assessment of washington's support for taiwan and its willingness to intervene to defend it. If beijing concludes the U.S.
▶ 0:55:44Ms. Glaser: Support for taiwan is waning, it is likely to adopt a more coercive risk tolerance strategy across political and military and gray zone domains. The taiwan public historically favorable view of the united states is declining. Doubts about american dependability to defend taiwan if attacked are growing. Doubts in taiwan about U.S.
▶ 0:56:06Ms. Glaser: Commitment to the island security and willingness to defend if attacked could result in despair about taiwan's future, providing the p.r.c. With an opportunity to advance its strategy of convincing taiwan's citizens their best and perhaps only option is unification on beijing's terms. Pessimism about willingness to support and defend taiwan is likely to weaken the resolve among the island's citizens to resist a takeover by the p.r.c. And could embolden the p.r.c.
▶ 0:56:36Ms. Glaser: To undertake riskier actions to compel unification. In my written testimony I have included many recommendations for the committee's consideration and here are the highlights. One, mandate the department of state to counter the p.r.c.'s distortion of you in general the simile resolution 2758 which beijing uses to them that it's one china principal and the international community and block taiwan's participation in
▶ 0:57:07Ms. Glaser: You and affiliated agencies. It's also using this resolution to prepare for a legal justification should he to take taiwan by military force. Two, send more code else to taiwan to ensure an up-to-date understanding of taiwan's evolving security needs and domestic dynamics which are changing. And to reaffirm U.S. commitment to taiwan's democracy, prosperity and security. Three, instruct the U.S.
▶ 0:57:35Ms. Glaser: Trade representative to finalize the U.S.-taiwan initiative on 21st century trade. The senate should also approve the double tax relief act to address the double taxation of cross-border investments. Fourth, explore ways for partners to provide equipment to the united states that could then be passed along to taiwan. This would be pathbreaking.
▶ 0:58:02Ms. Glaser: Facilitate resilience and security cooperation between taiwan and regional partners like japan, australia, the philippines, as well as with countries with extensive civil defense experience such as finland, sweden and israel. I think the committee for its attention to this important issue. I look forward to your questions.
▶ 0:58:22Chair Risch: Dr. doshi.
▶ 0:58:28Dr. Doshi: Thank you for the opportunity to testify today on U.S.-taiwan policy. First, what is taiwan matter? What is china's strategy? How is taiwan responding? How should we prepare? I want to offer two main reasons.
▶ 0:58:48Dr. Doshi: According to bloomberg economics, a chinese invasion would cost the global economy $10 trillion, 10% of global gdp and that's an economic setback bigger than the global financial crisis and the covid pandemic and rivaling the great depression. That's because taiwan makes semiconductors. There's a second risk. We will not support taiwan and the allies and partners will assume in asia we will not support them either and they will accommodate themselves to china's power. If we lose them to china, these are best path to be industrializing america.
▶ 0:59:19Dr. Doshi: Our asian allies know how to build things and they are investing in U.S. manufacturing projects under president trump. If asia falls under chinese or give any, all those investments and supply chains and economic future could become subject to chinese veto. That leads to a second question. What is the china strategy? Beijing one stay on the chinese civil and secure president xi's legacy and that has two parts. The first is the right taiwan's will.
▶ 0:59:50Dr. Doshi: China carried out 1000 incursions of the taiwan's claims to its edification zone and it's approaching 4000. Four years ago they are the across the street. China maintained a modest naval footprint around taiwan. Now the island is routinely circled. China is preparing for provocations persistent operations inside taiwan's 24 nautical miles him, the seizure of islands and a short-term quarantine of taiwan itself.
▶ 1:00:24Dr. Doshi: China is using cyber intrusions, political warfare, isolation, disinformation, economic coercion and espionage to weaken taiwan's resolve. They have undertaken the fastest military buildup in modern history with the navy that was to be 50% larger than ours.
▶ 1:00:45Dr. Doshi: They are stockpiling commodities, producing missiles, hardening their financial system, building nuclear forces at break speed in infiltrating american critical infrastructure to deter or defeat us. That is a wartime footing. How is taiwan handling the threat? Taiwan is not standing still. They have doubled their defense spending in the last 10 years and then the next year they hope to go from 2.5% to more than 3% of gdp, possibly 5% if you include supplemental spending.
▶ 1:01:16Dr. Doshi: They have extended conscription from four months to one year, investing in capabilities, cruise missiles, short range air defense and setting up new commands like littoral combat command to integrate the asymmetric it capabilities that integrate the asymmetric capabilities. They have launched a whole society defense resilience program, including president level participation in taiwan. A few does ago that is debited millions of handbooks, when the each household on how to get them ready for invasion or blockade.
▶ 1:01:47Dr. Doshi: Taiwan has more to do but it's moving in with our support it can move faster. How do we respond? A few recommendations for my written testimony.. We need to balance . Energy on symbolic issues in more on security assistance. We need to bolster taiwan's morale at a time of uncertainty.
▶ 1:02:10Dr. Doshi: Concluding a long sought taiwan tax treaty will help and so will congressional delegations at a time when executive branch travel is reduced. We need to move faster on arms sales by putting taiwan first in the fms queue and working around production bottlenecks with appropriations for third-party procurement and pre-positioning on taiwan itself. We need regular interagency contingency planning for taiwan today is a congress can require it.
▶ 1:02:38Dr. Doshi: When he legislation that creates broad and flexible authorities for sanctions which for the scenarios we don't have. We need to prepare for a blockading quarantine scenario, including providing maritime insurance to foreign vessels carrying energy to taiwan when the market will not provide that assurance to anyone. We need to work with allies on contingency planning and economic responses and determine signaling. All those recommendations are the start. There's more that we can and should do.
▶ 1:03:05Dr. Doshi: If we do it, we can deter aggression and maintain peace and stability. Thank you for your time and opportunity today and I look forward to answering your questions.
▶ 1:03:14Chair Risch: Thank you very much. Thank you to each of you of your tent -- for your testimony. We will do a round of testimony. I will start with myself. Ms. glaser, I was interested in your comment that the trajectory of the taiwanese view of the U.S. commitment is on a downward turn, which is interesting.
▶ 1:03:41Chair Risch: More and more we are engaging there. How do you explain that? How is that measured and how do you explain that?
▶ 1:03:51Ms. Glaser: Thank you for that question, senator risch. It's an important one. As I cited in my testimony, this is measured by public opinion polls. There are many public opinion centers in taiwan. They are not all reliable.
▶ 1:04:10Chair Risch: Like america.
▶ 1:04:10Ms. Glaser: I have tried to cite different ones but it's quite clear that this is the trend in taiwan. Declining confidence in whether the united states will come to taiwan's defense. I think there are several reasons. One is p.r.c. Narratives, disinformation, propaganda. That is really quite prevalent in taiwan.
▶ 1:04:39Ms. Glaser: Secondly, there are domestic narratives in taiwan that also generate this sentiment that the united states is simply not reliable. I think thirdly, if the people in taiwan see as senator shaheen noted that the tariffs imposed on taiwan -- they are now a 20% -- there is no final agreement between the U.S. and taiwan. Negotiations are still ongoing.
▶ 1:05:10Ms. Glaser: Japan and korea have 15%. Taiwan feels it is not being treated as a good partner and they are worried about not being as competitive compared to companies in japan and south korea. Of course there is the inability of their president to transit through new york.
▶ 1:05:34Ms. Glaser: Ultimately taiwan canceled that transit but he has not been able to come to the united states since then. I think there is a widespread sense of uncertainty in taiwan.
▶ 1:05:50Ms. Glaser: Every time the united states president meets with xi jinping, with china's leader, taiwan is very nervous and there are all sorts of news reports how taiwan might -- it's interest might be damaged in that meeting. It turns out so far that they are not but that concern persists as there are plans for xi jinping to be with president trump several times next year.
▶ 1:06:18Chair Risch: Good explanation. I appreciate that. Dr. dickey, I heard in your testimony your concern about the ait, the american institute in taiwan. We have dramatically increased some of the economic and security cooperation we have with taiwan. What are your thoughts about what needs to be done there?
▶ 1:06:45Dr. Dickey: Thank you, senator. As we have increased our security activities with taiwan my understanding is we have reached mac space constraints at ait -- max space constraints in taiwan. There's not enough people to execute current policy objectives.
▶ 1:07:08Dr. Dickey: It is past time to direct state to the review of the footprint at ait and consider whether a second or third facility needs to be added, an annex on the ground in taiwan to allow for more people to be on the island.
▶ 1:07:21Chair Risch: I appreciate that. Senator shaheen.
▶ 1:07:25Sen. Shaheen: Thank you, Mr. chairman. I would like to observe before I start my questions that I'm a little disappointed that we don't have more public here at this hearing and we don't have more members at this hearing, because given the conventional wisdom is that there is the potential for a war over taiwan in the future and given the economic implications of taiwan
▶ 1:07:58Sen. Shaheen: For the united states this is a topic we all really ought to be concerned about. We ought to be paying attention to. I appreciate our witnesses for your comments today. I hope we can share what we hear today with other members of the committee. Clearly there's a lot at stake and we better start paying more attention to what is going on. I think this question is for you, indo-pacific. --Dr. doshi.
▶ 1:08:33Sen. Shaheen: United states built a sanctions coalition that denied russia critical technologies and billions in revenue for the war in ukraine. In ukraine. I think we will need that same toolkit if we deterred china and to respond if they cross the line. As I understand we don't have the authority, the united states, does not have the authority to respond to p.r.c. Gray zone aggression with sanctions.
▶ 1:09:02Sen. Shaheen: As congress things about creating that authority, what triggers and measures would you recommend and include and how should we coordinate with allies in the deployment of such tools?
▶ 1:09:13Dr. Doshi: Thank you for that question. It is true. There are only a handful of the executive orders that allow the net estates to declare sanctions on china. None related to taiwan. In a crisis you have to create an authority, an executive order to levy sanctions on the chinese target. The targeting legislation you have proposed is very helpful.
▶ 1:09:43Dr. Doshi: We need the authority to follow through. Congress could make sure that authority exists as they have done with other cases and that would be helpful to the executive branch. A second point about priorities. There's going to be an escalation letter that is needed for different kinds of provocations in the straight. We might not wish to make this public. That kind of work needs to be done in advance and we need to know what the cost will be so we can mitigate them. That work is essential and common sense.
▶ 1:10:14Dr. Doshi: One other point about coordination with allies. Rls will be reluctant to do some of this. They understand there will be economic cost for them as well. Help them understand when they speak out in favor of taiwan, when they take the stands, we are with them. That is why as chairman risch mentioned in your opening, the problem with the punishment of japan by china for statements by the prime minister is concerning. The united states has to stay with japan. If we don't, no other country will stand with taiwan.
▶ 1:10:44Sen. Shaheen: I don't know if either of our other witnesses want to add anything with respect to sanctions. If not, let me follow up on the comments the chairman mentioned about japan. Ask you -- we have not to get administration voice support for japan following prime minister's comments she made supportive taiwan.
▶ 1:11:15Sen. Shaheen: The chinese basically threatened to behead the prime minister because of those comments. Characterized the trump administration's coronation with our allies and partners on taiwan and china policies.
▶ 1:11:28Dr. Doshi: I would like to see more coordination. The administration could coordinate intensely on taiwan and economic matters. In particular right now we might see china escalate beyond the rhetorical to the economic. Imagine if china takes the steps against japan. We need article five mechanisms to collectively push back when china does that. We don't have a mechanism now.
▶ 1:11:59Dr. Doshi: It is possible and I think with congressional support we can get there. I would say there's been a few statements of support for japan from the trump administration. We need more given the scope of what japan is facing. I did read a report that the typhon missile system might've been withdrawn from japan around the same time china was pushing japan. It sends the wrong kind of signal even if it is a regularly scheduled rotation.
▶ 1:12:23Sen. Shaheen: Thank you for mentioning the report. I have a copy here. Hopefully people will look at it. It does raise troubling questions about our policies with respect to the ability to continue to compete with china. Thank you, Mr. chairman.
▶ 1:12:40Chair Risch: Thank you, senator. Dr. doshi, you mentioned in your statements now military matters related to taiwan. Capabilities, planning and that sort of thing. It is appropriate to raise this. This committee's focus on other things I have to be careful what I say.
▶ 1:13:10Chair Risch: I'm the senior republican on the intelligence committee. There is a lot more to that. As you mentioned, it is not appropriate for public dissemination and we hope it stays that way. I want the record to be clear there's a lot more to this when it comes to the military preparedness and the military planning regarding taiwan and china. That's about all I can say about it. With that, senator ricketts.
▶ 1:13:42Sen. Ricketts: Thank you to the witness is to be here to talk about this. Really important issue that more americans ought to be taking notice of. For the reasons you describe the economic impacts and the quality of life here and potential taiwan contingency. Over the past several years taiwan has made real sacrifices to improve its self-defense. Dr.
▶ 1:14:06Sen. Ricketts: Doshi, you outlined restructuring its force in investing in systems that make an invasion more costly to beijing. Even as taiwan steps up, united states is failing to deliver key capabilities on the timeline deterrence requires. Bureaucratic backlogs and sluggish notifications are creating vulnerabilities we cannot afford. Fms cases are bogged down by delays and industrial base constraints and outdated notification rules.
▶ 1:14:37Sen. Ricketts: Dr. doshi, you highlighted this clearly. With these delays, they weaken taiwan's political will and ultimately increase the risk to U.S. forces in what they would face if deterrence failed. That is why I introduced an act with senator coons to put taiwan in a category to cut notification times and raise thresholds. We want to venture weapons we have approved are available and reach taiwan when they matter.
▶ 1:15:14Sen. Ricketts: Dr. dickey, can you walk us how this translates to real world deterrence failings?
▶ 1:15:22Dr. Dickey: Thank you, senator. It's an issue I care a lot about personally. Arms sales are a high visibility barometer of the U.S. commitment to taiwan. Whenever there is a delay or notifications are bundled or held for political reasons, that barometer, the signal of your support decreases significantly for all that we are doing with taiwan and across the taiwan straight. Today we see a sharp drop in notifications year on year both in terms of dollar amount and frequency.
▶ 1:15:53Dr. Dickey: My concern is that it sends a sign a waiver and commitment to taiwan even as we continue to use authorities like pda and fmf to open up other forms of defense and security cooperation with taiwan. My bottom line is I think fms is one piece of the toolkit we have for taiwan. All the pieces of legislation and resources we are reaching for her to help accelerate and break down some of these pipelines it issues are important.
▶ 1:16:21Dr. Dickey: They can't be the only thing we are doing. We need to lean forward and use pda to its fullest potential, use fmf, pursue defense sales that are direct commercial in nature and outside of the traditional procurement lanes, and really find all the efficiencies available to us to ensure these delays are not what is breaking down and they are not seen as a sign a waiver and commitment.
▶ 1:16:46Sen. Ricketts: How does beijing read these delays? You mentioned the drop off in deliveries and how does that shape their assessment of our resolve to support taiwan?
▶ 1:16:57Dr. Dickey: Facing has to plan for taiwan based on what they can see as being delivered to taiwan. When we are unable to deliver the systems we publicly say taiwan needs, these asymmetric capabilities, large numbers of small things to help them counter the threat, I think beijing could wake up and say this is an easier fight and what we think it might be.
▶ 1:17:24Dr. Dickey: They could wake up and say today could be the day that we take action against taiwan. When we are not able to deliver the systems on time and on budget due to challenges within the U.S. defense industrial base, that credibly undermines that deterrent that beijing would be staring straight into.
▶ 1:17:44Sen. Ricketts: You have seen these cases up close. Where in the process is taiwan losing the most time?
▶ 1:17:52Dr. Dickey: It depends on the capability. It depends on the defense prime that is executing the case. Sometimes a defense prime can strategically say we would like to move taiwan to the front of the queue and they will make changes in the production line to put taiwan first above others. Sometimes the defense prime's are unable to do that because they have other physical considerations. There's one specific example for a platform where taiwan was further down the list.
▶ 1:18:22Dr. Dickey: I believe it was three or four or even five. The defense prime was unable to move taiwan forward because there would have been a significant amount of nonrecurring engineering costs that would've had to transfer from another foreign partner to taiwan to pay for the system that taiwan had contracted for. These are all process issues.
▶ 1:18:44Dr. Dickey: If the department of defense and state work together to figure out ways with congress to reallocate funds and figure out how to pay for some of these costs, my view is that it is possible to consistently move taiwan to the front of the queue on production lines.
▶ 1:18:59Sen. Ricketts: Appreciate it.
▶ 1:18:59Chair Risch: Senator coons.
▶ 1:19:02Sen. Coons: This is a critically important hearing. The security, the status of taiwan as all three witnesses have said is absolutely essential. To our national security, to our economic security, to the 21st century.
▶ 1:19:19Sen. Coons: And whether or not we effectively deter the prc from taking over taiwan by force, whether through quarantine or invasion, is probably the most decisive issue of this committee and this senate will have to address. On the senior democrat on defense appropriations.
▶ 1:19:39Sen. Coons: We are investing a huge amount and ensuring we have the naval and aviation and the space resources for a taiwan contingency, yet we are missing several critical issues that you all just testify to. I'm concerned this administration rather than focusing and bearing down on the important and critical ways you have just suggested we could provide support for taiwan is taking its foot off the gas.
▶ 1:20:09Sen. Coons: I'm grateful for the chance to travel to taiwan recently was senator ricketts and introduced bipartisan legislation that would help address some of these key challenges around fms that you have mentioned. The senate has long played a central role in U.S.-taiwan policy back to the taiwan relations act 50 years ago and today with the taiwan enhanced resilience act signed into law by the last president. Our world today is all the more important because we have a partner in taiwan that is stepping up in critical ways.
▶ 1:20:41Sen. Coons: As senator ricketts and I saw on her trip to the region, they are making dramatic investments that are improving not just their defense budget but what they are buying, what they are doing with it and how they are delivering a whole of society resilience effort. It is baffling to me that despite strong bipartisan agreement that this is a critical security issue that our president is stepping back.
▶ 1:21:06Sen. Coons: If we just look at a time line of the major security cooperation announcements and congressional notifications concerning taiwan that occurred from january of 2023 to the present, fms sales, fms obligations, presidential drawdown authorities, very long and robust list and it and robust list and since president trump canada office virtually none. Sales to taiwan and the first time was a record $18 billion.
▶ 1:21:35Sen. Coons: So far in this term a tiny fraction of $300 million. The trump administration has canceled high-level defense dialogues, that I the president of taiwan transit through the united states, undoing a long-standing president of presidents of both parties. This is to curry favor with china in the midst of a flood terrified -- terrace fight -- flawed tariff fighters.
▶ 1:22:10Sen. Coons: . How are they seeing all of this? How is this potentially in building xi to make the decision that today's the day that he will take action, far more aggressive action and risky action against taiwan?
▶ 1:22:24Ms. Glaser: Thank you, senator coons, for your remarks. We met at the aspen security forum in the summer and are very recently coming back from taiwan and very much appreciate your attention to the issue. Taiwan is doing a great deal to bolster its own ability to defend the island.
▶ 1:22:55Ms. Glaser: I know we are working closely with taiwan. The prc I think looks at taiwan's capabilities and sees that it can use whatever means it has to take taiwan and it will probably try to do so in a way before the united states can get there.
▶ 1:23:16Ms. Glaser: If they see this administration as diminishing its support for taiwan, they will probably be more willing to use coercion to increase measures that have operations -- that operate in the to take he was known around taiwan. There might be more potential for miscalculation.
▶ 1:23:44Ms. Glaser: They may actually think that the united states will not respond and they can impose a blockade and then see if there is no response that then they will wait for taiwan to surrender when it runs out of energy.
▶ 1:23:58Sen. Coons: Dr. dickey, you mentioned the regional contingency stockpile but the executive branch has done nothing. Can you walk through the pros and cons of this concept and unique circumstances in the case of taiwan given the tierney of distance?
▶ 1:24:19Dr. Dickey: I agree that should remain urgent priority. There are two types of stockpiles that are needed. Tera authorizes one on taiwan but we need one for multiple elsewhere within the region for the U.S. and allies to use. When I was in dod I departed last march of one of the challenges we had was this policy question of who owns what and who builds what.
▶ 1:24:47Dr. Dickey: Ensuring that for whatever stockpile was built that the appropriations matched up with the authority. The challenge was we lacked the military construction or line item appropriations to build the stockpiles but we also had not reached the policy clarity we needed on who would on the keys. There's a lot of compared -- comparison to the israel model and discussion of this should look like israel or should not look like israel, the pros and cons of each.
▶ 1:25:18Dr. Dickey: A lot of those conversations never really reached their full fruition. My belief is that the stockpile is feasible but it needs to be done by and with and through taiwan partners. Once it is built it should include not just the hard material capabilities the U.S. or taiwan would need, but also the nonmaterial things. Medical supplies, food rations, water, etc. Things that would support the people of taiwan in a crisis.
▶ 1:25:48Chair Risch: Senator curtis.
▶ 1:25:51Sen. Curtis: Thank you. This is a very important hearing. And he cannot help but think about your comment about more members here, more public and that there could be a day where the worst thing happens this room could be very full.
▶ 1:26:11Sen. Curtis: I would like to think of the six assurances to taiwan act, legislation I introduced that would formally codify the cornerstone of america's taiwan policy. They were articulated by president reagan back in 1982.
▶ 1:26:30Sen. Curtis: Just to clarify, the united states would not set a date to that end arms sales to taiwan, would not consult beijing about the sales, when I played a meaty ration -- a mediation role, and would not alter our position on sovereignty and would never pressure taiwan to negotiate with the prc.
▶ 1:26:51Sen. Curtis: For four decades those principles have never really been formalized or codified by congress but helped shape policy. Today is the prc escalates and we have all talked about, it's important. My bill would take a long-standing U.S. policy reaffirmed by the administrations of both parties and reaffirmed by congress to nonbinding resolutions numerous times and codify it to ensure congressional buy-in and oversight.
▶ 1:27:20Sen. Curtis: I believe I codifying the six assurances that we could send one of the signals we have all been talking about sending today stop Ms. glaser, dashed sending today. --sending today. Ms. glaser, my act is different because it puts it into law and has a mechanism for congressional buy-in.
▶ 1:27:47Sen. Curtis: In your view, what is the value of codifying this and how specifically my codifying this act in tandem with tera help reduce the ambiguity?
▶ 1:28:01Ms. Glaser: Thank you, senator curtis. I think it was important that the first trump administration made public the six assurances. They had been cap rip -- had been kept secret for a long time. Our policy is composed of the taiwan relations act and three joint communications with china and six assurances. It's of great value to the united states.
▶ 1:28:29Ms. Glaser: It would require the white house to notify congress before taking any actions that are mentioned in the six assurances and congress would have the opportunity to pass a joint resolution of disapproval to stop the administration from acting. The taiwan relations act has had legal force since day one.
▶ 1:28:49Ms. Glaser: Given the succession -- assurances legal force could help in a time of heightened tension and provide reassurance to taiwan, which I have emphasized is extremely important that taiwan needs more reassurance and the public insurance -- an assurance would enable public support for higher defense spending of taiwan which I think we know is important. It was signal the U.S.
▶ 1:29:16Ms. Glaser: Is not weakening its support for taiwan.
▶ 1:29:22Sen. Curtis: I would like to go back to the chairman's comments about what you wrote in august about the declining you americans. I reflected in 1979 when we withdrew diplomatic relations from taiwan. I believe the time americans were in a bad place and they hunkered down in their homes. They did not feel safe.
▶ 1:29:51Sen. Curtis: I landed on the island in august of 1979 for two years. Within a couple of months that was gone we were back to the status of being special and taiwan. I worry this time around it is different because of things like social media and prc's availability to influence the people in taiwan. How do we counter that?
▶ 1:30:18Sen. Curtis: How do we not lose the battle in the hearts and minds of our friends?
▶ 1:30:24Ms. Glaser: That is a terrific question, senator. We were in taiwan at the same time. I arrived three weeks after we broke diplomatic relations and I was there also for about a year and a half. A very interesting time. The people of taiwan remained very much favorably disposing sentiment among americans in general.
▶ 1:30:52Ms. Glaser: I think they are not being given what they deserve as they have been close friends of the united states. I think to counter the sentiment that as we need to be sending more congressional delegations, we certainly need to be approving and selling more arms. This is really seen as a barometer of U.S. commitment.
▶ 1:31:19Ms. Glaser: There is so much we are doing with taiwan in the military security area that we cannot make public and we should not make public. The things we can make public we really should be doing more of. Whether it is visits -- even administration officials where it is necessary with the work we are doing with taiwan. State department dialogues are defense department dialogues or special channels we are not supposed to talk about.
▶ 1:31:49Ms. Glaser: We have so much work we do with taiwan. Passing the economic legislation on double taxation I think is really important in the 21st century trade initiative.
▶ 1:32:03Sen. Curtis: I'm borrowing a little extra time.
▶ 1:32:05Chair Risch: Go ahead.
▶ 1:32:06Sen. Curtis: That 1979 era is important for us to focus on. Taiwan was under martial law. To watch taiwan go from martial law in 1979 to the democracy that they have today, that's exactly what we would like to duplicate around the world and thought we were duplicating in china but it's gone the opposite direction.
▶ 1:32:31Sen. Curtis: I would like to also support senator ricketts' bill to help with energy infrastructure. It's a serious problem and I think it's a great idea. I yield my time.
▶ 1:32:44Chair Risch: Thank you. Your comments about your bill and senator ricketts' bill are appropriate. We were just talking at the business meeting. We will get serious consideration of getting those on the docket. Thank you for underscoring that. Senator merkley.
▶ 1:33:06Sen. Merkley: A year ago about this time I went to taiwan. The first member of congress to go following the election and I can tell you the leaders were extremely nervous about the new administration. Primarily in the context of up-and-down support for ukraine and what message that might be sending to china about our commitment to taiwan.
▶ 1:33:41Sen. Merkley: It is incredibly important that we send a very strong and consistent message. Senator curtis's bill, which I'm proud to be the democratic lead on, we filed this morning. I appreciate, Ms. glaser, your response.
▶ 1:34:03Sen. Merkley: One issue discussed a year ago was the incredibly rapid transition in warfare technology .particularly the use of drones and how this affects planning for asymmetric warfare. That goes to the heartof the porcupine strategy regarding taiwan.
▶ 1:34:27Sen. Merkley: There were concerns that taiwan is not moving fast enough in terms of adjusting their strategy to this changing technological warfare world. There's a lot of momentum behind big, expensive weapons systems versus very inexpensive mines and drones that can make aggression very difficult for the aggressor, as ukraine is demonstrated.
▶ 1:34:57Sen. Merkley: I wanted to ask you, Dr. dickey, given your background, have we and our relationship a quickly enough to understanding the changing dynamics ?
▶ 1:35:16Sen. Merkley: Kiss taiwan maximizing the advantages -- is taiwan maximizing advantage of mine and your protection against expensive military weapons, including ships and planes that china might use if they were to decide to take over taiwan?
▶ 1:35:40Dr. Dickey: Thank you, senator. That's a great question. I think we have adapted quickly but can we move faster? The answer to that is also yes. As a data point taiwan has at least for drones taken a similar model to when they stood up their semiconductor industry in the 1980's.
▶ 1:36:01Dr. Dickey: I mean to suggest they have really funneled a lot of their government resources and energy to building industrial parks across the island, specifically in the central west park to allow them to funnel expertise and industry to building drones. To my knowledge they have not done something similar with mines.
▶ 1:36:22Dr. Dickey: It is a slower burn, longer the time approach because it is using this industrial park model to bring companies into one facility, one finite fixed area to build capabilities the military would use. The other challenge taiwan has a we frankly have is that they have a demand to build supply chains that are free of chinese inputs.
▶ 1:36:47Dr. Dickey: Given legacy chips from the prc and a lot of electronic components it is a really tall order for taiwan and frankly for us. While taiwan is moving in the right direction, they put policy, resources and energy behind drones but there's a lot of challenges to get in there. For an effective defense taiwan needs different types of mines.
▶ 1:37:17Dr. Dickey: They are trying to move out in acquiring each of the different types of mines. The U.S. does not make the type taiwan needs so they need to look elsewhere for resources. Taiwan is inspired by ukraine and looking towards undersea uuv's that can move autonomously. I have seen some of the systems made by taiwan.
▶ 1:37:38Dr. Dickey: Industries the challenges taiwan faces, not unlike here is that the defense procurement timeline is quite long.
▶ 1:37:50Sen. Merkley: That's very helpful. A few seconds ask a second question. I have many questions but I will have to hold myself to one more. Ms.
▶ 1:38:02Sen. Merkley: Glaser, I'm very concerned about the 2024 beijing new guidelines that set out changes in the definition of separatism, including advocacy for taiwan's self-governance and the guardians have harsh penalties including a death sentence and they are intended to deter political speech in taiwan.
▶ 1:38:26Sen. Merkley: The foundation is the 2005 law of which article eight states if taiwan succeeds from china or possible for peace and unification should be exhausted the prc shall employ non-peaceful means. How do we assess the impact of their new guidelines as we ponder the challenge of helping defend democracy in taiwan?
▶ 1:38:59Ms. Glaser: That's a very important question, senator. The guidelines were obviously put into place last year and are still being implemented. I think taiwan is still studying and seeing the evidence of beijing targeting their citizens.
▶ 1:39:19Ms. Glaser: I would like to cite the recent example of a legislator who was the founder of kuma academy and that teaches classes on cybersecurity and provide medical care in a crisis. It is really a very effective organization in taiwan. Because of his founding of the academy they have decided he's a target.
▶ 1:39:49Ms. Glaser: In the future he goes to any future -- country with the next edition treaty, he can be sent back to china. This is one example. There are many people in taiwan who are being targeted by these guidelines. I think taiwan is taking them quite seriously. And working to protect its citizens, warning people who could be subjected to any kind of pressure or imprisonment not to go to china.
▶ 1:40:21Ms. Glaser: I expect he will see many examples of china pressuring people they have labeled pro-independence. This includes actions that have taken even before these were issued. The actions against businessmen and taiwan -- in taiwan. Their companies gave some donations to the dpp.
▶ 1:40:47Ms. Glaser: They also give them to the kmt because businesses support both sides in taiwan but they were targeted and fined.
▶ 1:40:54Chair Risch: Senator cornyn.
▶ 1:40:57Sen. Cornyn: What is the impact on the U.S. economy and national security if we failed to assist in the defense of taiwan? Go for it.
▶ 1:41:15Dr. Dickey: Great question. I will let rush talk about other indicators but from a security perspective, the loss of taiwan as this "unsinkable aircraft carrier" would be irreversible. We would lose our ability to access the first island chain and the rest of the region. We would lose a close, vibrant, democratic partner. The list goes on and on.
▶ 1:41:43Sen. Cornyn: With president x I stop there in your opinion?
▶ 1:41:50Dr. Dickey: No.
▶ 1:41:51Sen. Shaheen: Is the important question because --
▶ 1:41:54Dr. Doshi: It is the important question because the american people would suffer. Let me offer three points. The economic cost of war itself which would be 10% of global gdp. Hey great depression -- a second great depression. Maybe taiwan capitulates. We are seeing in asia that is no longer a relay inclined towards the united states. A world in which asia is no longer accessible to us.
▶ 1:42:26Dr. Doshi: Asian states bandwagon with china and we have to assume that will happen because china has half of all regional military spending in half of all asian gdp. Well, we will work with china and accommodate their power. That's a world in which the U.S. cannot be industrialized. We are focused on building back manufacturing capabilities. President trump and president biden focused on that. Asian investment is critical.
▶ 1:42:54Dr. Doshi: To bring it home to the average american, is not just the cost of the war. It's a question of what the business model would be as a country. Will we bring back manufacturing? If we don't stand with taiwan it will be hard to do that.
▶ 1:43:07Ms. Glaser: One additional point and I agree with my fellow witnesses. Using force has not been central in chinese foreign policy, at least in 1979 when they took some actions and invaded vietnam. I believe that if they actually took taiwan by force successfully, that consideration of use of force would become much more central in prc foreign policy.
▶ 1:43:36Ms. Glaser: Whether we're talking about against japan, south china sea, some of the claimants or potentially against india. As their capabilities continue to improve, much further from their shores.
▶ 1:43:48Sen. Cornyn: During the first trump administration and during the biden administration, we worked on shoring up the supply chains of advanced semi conductors, recognizing the dominance of asia and that production of these essential ingredients of everything with and often on switch. -- off and on switch.
▶ 1:44:12Sen. Cornyn: With the impact that we were to deny access to tsmc and maybe even samsung'slet me just say td be catastrophic. The entire buildout is made in taiwan. It all comes from taiwan. That is exactly right.
▶ 1:44:43Sen. Cornyn: Every single nvidia chip is made in taiwan. There is no ai data center buildout. The result of china having not only destroyed those but perhaps occupying those if it is peacefully taken, it would mean our entire ai future is in the hands of beijing. Because we don't have the industrial advantage to go head to head against china, this is the one we do we do have.
▶ 1:45:13Sen. Cornyn: If we lost that we would probably lose the 21st century.
▶ 1:45:17Sen. Cornyn: If the consequences of chinese invasion of taiwan would be so catastrophic to our economy and national security, does a policy make sense? Let's go down the line.
▶ 1:45:36Dr. Dickey: My belief is it gives the president of the united states the most flexibility in a crisis or contingency.
▶ 1:45:50Dr. Doshi: I believe it also incentivizes taiwan to invest. Everything it has deployed on its island is worth 1000 of what we have. I would like them to have skin in the game.
▶ 1:46:12Ms. Glaser: I believe strategic ambiguity serves american interest. There would be a risk of it being interpreted in beijing if the united states that we would defend taiwan under all circumstances that it might promote the attack we are seeking to deter. Especially if we don't have the capability present to defend taiwan.
▶ 1:46:40Ms. Glaser: I also agree with both of my fellow witnesses that we should not tie the hands of the president. We have to ensure we have the capability, we have to have the credible military threat. That is one of the most important ingredients to support strategic ambiguity.
▶ 1:47:09Sen. Van Hollen: I hadn't planned on pursuing this line of questioning. One of the issues of course is making sure that we protect the high-end chips fabrication in taiwan. That is part of a strategy to make sure the united states and our ai tech remains on the cutting edge.
▶ 1:47:32Sen. Van Hollen: The other half of that coin is making sure we do what we can to make sure that china cannot outcompete us in this area. We have the entities list that prohibits the transfer to certain chinese companies. There are ways to get around that including by shipping high-end ships to subsidiaries. Do you agree with the premise?
▶ 1:48:04Sen. Van Hollen: Wasn't this the subject of conversation between president trump and president xi in south korea?
▶ 1:48:12Dr. Doshi: We close the loophole and essentially reopened it. Essentially giving china a new benefit that we had planned to take away, is that correct?
▶ 1:48:25Dr. Doshi: That would be fair.
▶ 1:48:29Sen. Van Hollen: Let me thank you for all of your work. I had a question related to something you have written a lot about. How china has tried to misinterpret that to exclude taiwan from many important international organizations.
▶ 1:48:54Sen. Van Hollen: That is why together with some of my colleagues here, I have introduced bipartisan resolution , the full bill has passed the whole house. The final bill is pending a vote on the senate floor.
▶ 1:49:13Sen. Van Hollen: Could you just talk briefly about why it is important that we make clear that taiwan has an important role to play that it serves our strategic interests and also our practical benefits and how china has twisted the meaning of that resolution and denied taiwan's participation?
▶ 1:49:35Ms. Glaser: Thank you for your work on this issue. It is extremely important and not receiving enough attention. There's obviously a lot of priorities, this does not come up much. It did come up earlier this year when one of our representatives raise the issue. China is pushing on an open door.
▶ 1:50:00Ms. Glaser: It is telling the world that the one china principle should be embraced by everybody in the world and that the u.n. Has already decided taiwan is part of china. We have all read this resolution from 1971, it is three paragraphs. It talks about expelling the forces. We all know that.
▶ 1:50:30Ms. Glaser: The interpretation of china is legally unsound. It has written reports telling the world that because of the fact that this resolution was passed that taiwan could never participate in the united nations. There are so many things we know that taiwan brings to the international community.
▶ 1:50:57Ms. Glaser: Its wealth of experience in public health to cite one example. Taiwan is just a terrific partner that we work with around international development in places like latin america where taiwan still has a small number of diplomatic allies.
▶ 1:51:18Ms. Glaser: In the united nations, their citizens cannot walk through the door to even participate in a tour of the united nations. They have reacted to this so strongly and there has been so little pushback. I did include in my work that I have done, things that the united states could do and I think we should clarify our policies being different.
▶ 1:51:48Ms. Glaser: We should have the state department write a report that calls out the flaws in the legal argument. They have written some really excellent reports. We have never seen a report on this issue and I would strongly recommend it.
▶ 1:52:08Sen. Van Hollen: I know the chairman in the ranking member would like to see this past. Along with the double taxation. Let me thank all of you for your testimony. Thank you.
▶ 1:52:24Chair Risch: That was an interesting comment you made about how important taiwan is in the world for its size compared to china and the spectacular things that they could do even though they have a small population. One thing we don't talk about is it underscores the difference between communist and capitalist system.
▶ 1:52:51Chair Risch: The capitalist system is magic when it comes to being able to perform for human beings. It is incredibly unfortunate.
▶ 1:53:10Sen. Shaheen: Senator van hollen's question serves as a nice segue into this question. You are talking about china's influence and international bodies and what that does to undermine taiwan. It exerts its influence with the u.n., it tries to prevent taiwan's meaningful participation and to force other countries to adopt that policy.
▶ 1:53:39Sen. Shaheen: Could you expand a little bit on why it is important for the united nations to counter beijing's tactics at the united nations? Also, what happens if we disengage from international bodies, how does that give an opening to china to prevent taiwan's meaningful participation?
▶ 1:54:04Sen. Shaheen: Also what that means in terms of our ability to compete with china and those international bodies. I would start with you but others, please jump in.
▶ 1:54:13Ms. Glaser: I do want to give an opportunity to my fellow witnesses to answer this question as well. I think that as we disengage from some of the international organizations, we have seen so much to the chinese, they are able to insert their norms to what the u.n. Should be doing.
▶ 1:54:42Ms. Glaser: In individual agencies where in the past they have been very successful getting people as the heads of agencies. I will mention just like the u.n. Human rights commission where there has been a reinterpretation of human rights , the chinese believe economic rights are most important, not freedom of press or assembly or speech.
▶ 1:55:14Ms. Glaser: That I think has been very damaging to democracy worldwide. This is very likely to continue. The chinese have been very influential in places like the world bank and the imf. Interpol, absolutely. These are places where not only is taiwan barred for participating but china is setting the agenda.
▶ 1:55:38Dr. Doshi: Thank you for the question. I will offer a few quick points. The first one is china could weaponize international institutions against taiwan. That does happen. You mentioned interval, a place where that does happen. It is under target by the prc, they are trying to push that through interpol so they could administer beyond who that extradition treaty is with.
▶ 1:56:11Dr. Doshi: The second point that is bigger and more strategic, if we want the ability to deter action against taiwan, we cannot do it alone. The steady erosion maybe not as a country but as an economy means fewer countries will stand with taiwan when it counts. That is the reason they pushback. It is about geopolitics.
▶ 1:56:37Dr. Doshi: Finally I want to put on your radar aipac, it will be in china. There's a real policy -- chance the delegation of taiwan could participate. They are very careful in restraint. They don't send their president. The possibility china would pushback on legitimate participation would be the most significant effort that we will see in many years.
▶ 1:57:07Dr. Dickey: I just wanted to address your question about what happens when we disengage specifically. Regardless of the forum, we are losing an opportunity to talk to other partners about taiwan and our one china policy. We have learned over the years how operationalizing our own relationship with taiwan.
▶ 1:57:33Dr. Dickey: When we don't show up and we don't have the opportunities to talk with partners about this, we are missing out on a chance to educate them on opportunities that they might have about partners to engage with taiwan in a way that contorts with their own laws and policies as well.
▶ 1:57:53Sen. Ricketts: We talked a little bit about this or touched upon this but taiwan's energy security is one of its biggest liabilities and beijing knows that. They simulated and energy quarantine and underscored the sobering reality. It doesn't require a blockade or even a shot fired.
▶ 1:58:22Sen. Ricketts: Target coercion alone could trigger a crisis before military action even happens. That's why strengthening taiwan's resilience. That's why the anti-embargo act to help counter this. This would expand lng exports to taiwan, support its energy infrastructure and energy shipments to taiwan.
▶ 1:58:46Sen. Ricketts: You noted taiwan's energy and security, what are some of the fastest steps they could take right now to reduce that exposure to energy quarantine?
▶ 1:58:56Dr. Doshi: Thank you for your leadership on this issue. I was grateful to participate in grateful for your legislation which goes a long way. What item I would add is important for us to consider, the question of insurance. When there is a conflict even if there is not a shot fired insurance rates will skyrocket for those carrying energy to taiwan.
▶ 1:59:27Dr. Doshi: We have a mechanism to address that problem. That mechanism is backstopped by the federal government. We can modify the statute to allow insurance to apply to foreign flagged vessels and should we do that we have a way to stabilize the insurance market and ensuring energy keeps flowing. That is a simple fix. The other elements that matter are coordinated with taiwan.
▶ 2:00:00Dr. Doshi: Working with countries like qatar that ensure consistent supplied. Finally we have to help taiwan find a way back to nuclear. I'm not sure the decision to denuclearize was that wise. It is possible that given all the innovation in our country including with small nodule reactors.
▶ 2:00:26Sen. Ricketts: I agree with you, this is something we should be taking to the nuclear power plant. They are in the process of shutting it down. The insurance issue as well. Thank you very much.
▶ 2:00:42Sen. Ricketts: >> your testimony has been cleared that taiwan, this small island of 23 million people is an engine of innovation and creativity and the competition for the 21st century centrally rests on the semi conductors that drive artificial intelligence that are uniquely made on taiwan.
▶ 2:01:11Sen. Ricketts: We have worked to invest manufacturing in the united states, we are not there yet. We are to gain total control of taiwan the results of our economy would be catastrophic. On the defense side we are investing massively in improving our ability to protect force in the western pacific on the state department and security policy side we are failing to take advantage of a bill signed into law several years ago as you
▶ 2:01:41Sen. Ricketts: Testified. Frankly I was holding my breath. I was afraid president trump might give the prc access to our most advanced ai chips. My grey concession going against a long-standing bipartisan consensus. There is likely two more summits in the near future, I would be interested in your thoughts, you have supported summits in the past.
▶ 2:02:11Sen. Ricketts: Walk us through what is a likely asked and what the consequences might be if president trump continues this concerning slide towards prioritizing usp over U.S.-taiwan relations.
▶ 2:02:28Dr. Doshi: I will had the privilege of preparing several summits for president biden. I will tell you one personal thing that I think you will find interesting. When we were preparing the summit and focused on progress on hey I with china, particularly a risk dialogue and progress on fentanyl, those were the three big priorities. China side was very clear.
▶ 2:03:00Dr. Doshi: To make progress we had to change our taiwan policy. The first major change in taiwan policy in 40 years. We did not think it was appropriate. It should happen in the context of taiwan policy itself. I suspect they will push on that. What would make president exide happy is to have progress on that issue in beijing.
▶ 2:03:36Dr. Doshi: Whether that was normalization or the three notes from president clinton. They would like to be able to complete that with a hat trick. It is not wise for us to let taiwan policy be linked to either issue. It creates further risks for them and creates instability for all of us. I am concerned about the possibility of us exporting our very best chips to china for one reason.
▶ 2:04:04Dr. Doshi: You look at the industrial competition and they are two times the power generation. That is not taken into account all of the other advantages that they have. Our biggest advantage is we are the leaders in ai compute. It is the reason we are ahead in ai right now. To give up that lead seems to me to be pretty immature -- premature.
▶ 2:04:31Sen. Coons: Do you think we should export a ban on p.r.c. On the chips at the nvidia level?
▶ 2:04:40Dr. Doshi: President trump was a bit backed into a corner. If you wanted to push hard on that issue, they could threaten a significant portion of our gdp. I believe it is important for us to prioritize the sales of our most advanced semi conductors and maybe allies and conductors. There is a finite amount of this stuff that could be made in taiwan.
▶ 2:05:07Dr. Doshi: Any ship that doesn't go to the united states is one fewer chip available to american ai companies.
▶ 2:05:15Sen. Coons: It seems to me from a recent bipartisan delegation trip. We have right in front of us the possibility of U.S. partnership with australia, canada, norway to secure these criticals. Why would we not accelerate our partnership so that we take away this critical power to the prc?
▶ 2:05:42Dr. Doshi: That should be a top priority to the united states. Those minerals in total is less than the price of one f-35. They support more than 20% of american gdp. There are all kinds of technologies being developed including at the university of texas like new methods of filtration. Here is the bottom line.
▶ 2:06:11Dr. Doshi: We could solve this problem, we just have to do it.
▶ 2:06:14Chair Risch: There's a lot going on with critical minerals. It is bipartisan. Everybody really understands this. It really hit home. I think starting with covid and then obviously with ukraine. Now with trade negotiations, game over. It was time.
▶ 2:06:45Chair Risch: We can't talk about everything going on here. This is right at the top of everybody's mind. The testimony given here was the administration had very little choice when they were talking about the chips versus critical minerals. We will be out of it here pretty quick. We are going to be out of this.
▶ 2:07:20Sen. Cornyn: What should we make of president xi's purging of military leadership in the pla in terms of its competence in its own military?
▶ 2:07:33Dr. Doshi: Thank you, it is a great question. The single most important question right now is very simple. What is the relationship between president xi in the military? The chairman of the party and the chairman -- vice chairman of the central military commission.
▶ 2:07:57Dr. Doshi: One of the two of them, actually being quite competent. He was previously the eastern commuter -- he elevated him and promoted him up two levels. The number four person was purged, the top political commissar to the pla. Others too. You look across the party, 10% of the central committee has been purged. 800,000 were disciplined last year.
▶ 2:08:29Dr. Doshi: Is president xi a stalinist or is he purging to make his military more competent? We don't fully know the answer. I want to speculate for a moment , he has pushed out a lot of folks he thinks are corrupt that care much more about their personal enrichment than china's national interest. It is a way of making it more effective not today but perhaps tomorrow.
▶ 2:08:58Dr. Doshi: There is the possibility that it will make the pla less effective if they had to go to war. In the next five years it might make them more effective. Finally I want to add one possibility to your radar. There's not great evidence of the parties relationship that the military at this moment. The other person that matters is the top vice chairman. He is the number two.
▶ 2:09:25Dr. Doshi: There's a rumor that they had some disagreements and the purged that as a result is a result of this. There could be internal disagreement is alarming and shocking. It does not put china in a great position to act immediately on taiwan.
▶ 2:09:49Sen. Cornyn: The thing that concerns president xi more than taiwan is maintaining power, is that the right way to look at it?
▶ 2:09:57Dr. Doshi: That's right. He thinks big picture about what he wants to accomplish in the world. You will ask who has the guns and who has the security services.
▶ 2:10:11Sen. Cornyn: Finally, does president xi draw any conclusions about the U.S. resolve to come to the assistance of our allies around the world from what is happening in ukraine for example?
▶ 2:10:31Ms. Glaser: I think they have to consider the worst case. They have to plan for the united states intervening in taiwan or coming to the aid of the rest of our partners. They likely are closely observing indicators that they have identified as to whether or not U.S. support for our allies is weakening.
▶ 2:11:01Ms. Glaser: What has taken place so far if you look at our military exercises and our dialogues with leaders, the secretary of defense has gone out to visit the region many times and coordinated with our allies made some pretty tough statements about prc pressure on the philippines just to cite one instance.
▶ 2:11:28Ms. Glaser: I doubt the pla at this point is likely to underestimate the U.S. commitment to its allies. I do think what happens has profound indications. They have a history going back over 30 years. They always ask themselves what are the lessons from those conflicts?
▶ 2:11:58Ms. Glaser: Everything happening in ukraine we are studying closely. They immediately ran a report on that all the way up to the highest levels including the president of china. They pay close attention to everything happening.
▶ 2:12:14Chair Risch: Thank you. Thank you to our witnesses. We do a number of these, I cannot tell you -- the three of you have demonstrated why we hold these hearings and certainly a very high level of information we have received. We will leave the record open until close of business tomorrow.
▶ 2:12:42Chair Risch: If they have other questions, we ask you to promptly respond to those if you would be so kind as to do so. Thank you very much. With that, the committee is adjourned.